Astra International (ASII.IJ Rp 4,750; BUY TP Rp 5,900) IIMS 2025 KTA: Non-Japanese players steal the spotlight, but not at the cost of ASII’s market share

Stock Code	Last Price	Change	Change %
DSSA	50,900	2,650	5.49%
CTBN	5,300	450	9.28%
SMMA	15,800	400	2.60%
CUAN	8,875	350	4.11%
SINI	3,500	310	9.72%
BESS	1,495	240	19.12%
NICL	1,055	175	19.89%
SGRO	2,570	170	7.08%

Astra International (ASII IJ)

IIMS 2025 KTA: Non-Japanese players steal the spotlight, but not at the cost of ASII’s market share

Price discounts were relatively steep at Rp30-60mn (7-9%), yet ASPs for 2025 models have also increased by 1-3%. Opsen tax remains a risk.
Non-Japanese players continue to steal the spotlight due to discounts and new models, with BYD continuing to show its strength.
Despite the above, we think the market has underappreciated stable ASII’s market share at ~56% for past 2 years. Reiterate BUY for ASII.

Discounts for 2024 inventories, slight price increase for NIK 2025

We visited IIMS 2025 in JIE Kemayoran and noted plenty of discount offerings, as most manufacturers are still selling 2024-registered (NIK) inventory. We noticed that Honda, Hyundai, Wuling, and Chery offered Rp30-60mn in discounts. Hyundai and Toyota offered Rp10-20mn discounts for their fleets with 2025 NIK. However, they have also increased their 2025 fleet prices by 2%, while Honda plans to increase its price by 3%, which is higher than Wuling’s +1% plan. While we noted that the price increases are still in line with their historical pattern, we are slightly concerned about the possible impact on price due to the Opsen tax, as some sales personnel mentioned that Opsen will remain effective despite the delay.

Non-Japanese cars are still stealing the spotlight

We observed decent traffic at the Toyota and Honda booths. Toyota released the New Corolla Cross Hybrid, Camry Hybrid, and Agya Stylix GR, which are relatively niche. Meanwhile, Honda just introduced the e:N1, which is a similar model to its HRV, yet with EV technology. There is no official release date yet, but we heard that the units would be limited in number, with a Rp22mn rental scheme per month for five years, and conversion to ownership would require an additional ~Rp300mn (i.e., the total cost could reach ~Rp1.6bn). Meanwhile, we noted strong traffic at Wuling, Hyundai, and BYD. Wuling just introduced the new Air EV and new Cloud series, which are priced 3-8% lower than their previous generation. Meanwhile, BYD introduced the Sealion (starting from Rp629mn), with approximately ~400 SPK recorded and scheduled for delivery in Mar25.

We think market has not appreciated stability on ASII’s market share. Despite new entrants from Chinese players, ASII has sustained its market share at 56% over the past two years, as BYD and Chery gained market share at the cost of Hyundai, Suzuki, and Honda. We reiterate our BUY rating for ASII with a TP of Rp5,900. ASII trades at a PER of 5.6x, -1.5 std dev of its 5-year mean. Downside risks: 1) Falling auto margin due to build-up inventory in retail; 2) Lower 4W sales due to impact from VAT and Opsen.

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