Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ)

Upgrading FY25-27F earnings on solid gold margin

 

  • 1Q25 result was well above estimates due to strong ore sales and sustained high gold sales vol.
  • BRANKAS gold app provides a slight discount of c.Rp57.9k/gr compared to physical gold price, though it charges minting and membership fees.
  • Maintain a Buy rating with an upgraded TP of Rp3,000. Key risks include lower commodity prices, lower utilization, and project delays.

 

Strong 1Q25 profitability derived from nickel ore sales

ANTM recorded a flattish 1Q25 revenue of Rp26.2tr, +1% qoq, +203% yoy, above our/cons estimate at 35%/34%, supported by continued strong gold sales of 13.7 tonnes, -9.7% qoq, and a much-improved nickel ore sales of 3.8mn wmt, +45% qoq. Furthermore, gold margin expanded to 7.9% (vs. 6.6% in FY25) and nickel margin expanded to 35% (vs. 8.7% in FY24) as ore sales grew +45% qoq, whilst FeNi sales declined -38% qoq. Thus, ANTM recorded a 1Q25 net profit of Rp2.1tr, +47% qoq, +8x yoy, which was above ours/cons estimate at 40%/51%.

 

BRANKAS Gold app.

ANTM promoted BRANKAS in its offline event, which is an abbreviation of “Berencana Aman Kelola Emas”, their newly launched app that allows the purchase of digital gold. One of its benefits includes a discount of c.Rp57,9k/gr compared to its physical gold price, which is attributable to the printing fee, and an additional Rp1.5k/gr discount for corporate buyers. The gold can be minted and sent to buyers after a waiting period of 15–20 working days, subject to supply availability. Furthermore, the app charges an annual membership fee based on the gold holding amount that ranges from Rp100k–9mn/year for an individual account with a max. holding of 15 kg and Rp4mn–6bn/year for a corporate account with a max. holding of 10 tonnes.

 

FY25-27F forecast upgrades on stronger gold margin

Based on the company’s latest guidance, we revised our gold price assumption to US$2.9k/Oz and imply a stronger gold margin of 7% (vs. 6% previously), which increased our FY25–27F revenue by +6%/+0%/+0% to Rp79.2tr/Rp72.5tr/ Rp73.8tr and earnings by +22%/+0.7%/+0.5% to Rp6.5tr/Rp5.5tr/Rp5.7tr.

 

Reiterate our Buy rating with an upgraded TP of Rp3,000

We reiterate our Buy rating with an upgraded TP of Rp3,000 based on FY25F PE of 11x (vs. 11x PE previously), equal to -0.5x std of its 3-yr mean forward PE band. Key risks to our call include lower nickel prices, a lower utilization rate, and project execution delays. 

 

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