Wintermar Offshore Marine (WINS IJ)

FY24 Earnings Missed; Downgrading Our FY25-26 Forecast

• WINS recorded a US$2.8mn NP in 4Q24, -56% qoq. However, its FY24 NP still grew strongly to US$22.5mn, +237% yoy (90% of our FY24F est.).
• We trimmed our FY25-26F revenue and earnings estimates by -4.1%/-5.6% and -27.7%/-29.6%.
• We maintain a Buy rating on WINS with a lowered TP of 480. Key risks include lower charter and utilization rates.

4Q24 earnings missed our estimate due to non-operational expenses

WINS recorded a 4Q24 net profit of US$2.8mn, -56% qoq, while its FY24 net profit still grew robustly to US$22.5mn, +237% yoy, reaching 90%/110% of our/consensus estimate. The 4Q24 earnings miss was largely due to: 1) a utilization rate of 66% due to the completion of short-term contracts in 4Q24 (vs. our estimation of 68%), 2) higher-than-expected minority interest of US$2.3mn, +96% qoq, due to stronger PSV contribution as daily charter rates increased up to US$19.4k/day in 4Q24, and 3) minor other expenses in the form of forex loss of US$470k in 4Q24.

Performance should continue to improve

Mgmt. indicated that the Asia Pacific daily charter rate (DCR) has slightly pulled back after reaching its peak in 3Q24, though it has continued to remain high, hovering at c.US$29k/day (from its peak at c.US$33k/day) for >750m2 PSV. Nonetheless, WINS continues to revamp its fleet, focusing on high-tier vessels as it recently ordered 1 multipurpose PSV set to deliver in FY26. As for utilization rate, the company is expecting an improved utilization rate of 70% in FY25 vs. 66% in FY24, despite a decline in 4Q24 to 63% as several mid-tier vessels were affected by rough weather and short-term contracts that ended. Mgmt. expects all of its PSVs to be operational by 2H25 since 1 PSV started working in Jan25, leaving 2 PSVs under maintenance (1 set to start work in 2Q25, and the other in 2H25).

Revisions to our estimate

Looking at some delays in PSV deployments, we have lowered our FY25-26F revenue and earnings estimates by -4.1%/-5.6% and -27.7%/-29.6%, respectively. The decline in our estimate is due to 1) lower utilization assumptions of 68% (from 70%), 2) lower DCR growth assumptions, and 3) a higher minority interest portion (from US$5mn to US$8mn). Nevertheless, our FY25 earnings estimate still implies a robust core profit growth of +54% yoy.

Maintain Buy rating with a downgraded TP of Rp480

We maintain our Buy rating on WINS based on its robust growth outlook. However, we have downgraded our TP from Rp610 to Rp480, in line with our downgraded earnings estimate for FY25-26F. The target price is based on 0.7x PBV and 6x FY25F PE. Key risks include lower daily charter rates and utilization.

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