Surya Semesta Internusa (SSIA IJ)
FY24 Pre-Sales Miss, But Potential as EV Ecosystem Hub Remains Intact
- SSIA missed its pre-sales target by 22ha in FY24 and lowered its FY24 net profit guidance by 40% to Rp300bn; FY25 expected at Rp304bn.
- Incorporating FY24 results and FY25 guidance, we trimmed our FY24F/FY25F net profit forecasts by -49%/-49% to Rp289bn/294bn.
- Despite weaker-than-expected FY24 results, we believe SSIA’s potential as EV ecosystem hub remains intact. Maintain Buy with a TP of Rp1,400.
FY24 Land Pre-Sales Misses Expectations, Net Profit Guidance Revised Down
SSIA booked 162ha in land (Subang 141ha+Karawang 21ha) pre-sales for FY24, below our/ company’s previous estimates of 184ha. Marketing sales totaled Rp2tr, forming 87% of our prior estimate of Rp2.2tr. The performance was primarily due to the land sales miss in Subang from a Chinese-based garment manufacturer. The company has lowered its FY24F net profit guidance to Rp300bn, from Rp500bn prev. (9M24 net profit was Rp228bn) – see Exhibit 1. This adjustment reflects the overall pre-sales shortfall, the recognition of a 19ha pre-sales now slated for FY25F, and, in our view, also indicates a potential for lower margins in Subang, likely due to BYD status as an anchor tenant.
Adjusting our FY24F/FY25F Net Profit by -49%/-49%
SSIA targets 120ha in land sales from Subang and 20ha from Karawang for FY25F. Its hospitality business expects Rp601bn in revenue (-36%yoy) as Melia Bali (494 rooms, historically contributing 53% of total hotel revenues) will close for renovation and reopen by year-end FY25. The construction business targets Rp3.5tr in revenue (+9%yoy), exceeding our previous estimate of Rp2.3tr, driven by significant new contract wins. Incorporating FY24 results and FY25 guidance, we trimmed our FY24F/FY25F net profit forecasts by -49%/-49% to Rp289bn/294bn (Exhibit 2). The adjustments include a slightly lower land pre-sales margin and revised Karawang pre-sales to 17ha. The overall net profit decline stems from lower margins in industrial land sales and the Melia Bali closure, which cannot be fully offset by higher construction revenue (a lower-margin segment by nature), based on our forecast
Maintain Buy with a Slightly Lower TP of Rp1,300 (73% disc. to RNAV)
Despite the weaker-than-expected FY24 results, we believe SSIA’s potential as Indonesia’s EV ecosystem hub remains intact (Exhibit 11), supported by its stable recurring revenue franchise (Exhibit 7). We rolled forward our RNAV valuation assumption to FY25F and maintained our Buy rating with a slightly lower TP of Rp1,300 (73% disc. to RNAV), as we forecast an overall lower FY25 net cash position due to Rp1.4tr debt and capex addition for Melia Bali. Risks include competition, delays in toll-road completion, and macro risks from Indonesia’s ability to attract FDI.
… Read More 20250123 SSIA
