Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (MIKA.IJ Rp1,905; BUY TP Rp3,300) Resilient Growth at Undemanding Valuation

Stock Code	Last Price	Change	Change %
DCII	195.000	2.000	1,04%
SINI	12.325	1.100	9,80%
DNET	10.900	1.000	10,10%
RATU	5.225	985	23,23%
PTRO	4.670	930	24,87%
GGRM	16.675	925	5,87%
BREN	3.300	660	25,00%
RAJA	3.770	550	17,08%

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (MIKA IJ)

Resilient Growth at Undemanding Valuation

MIKA delivered a resilient 1Q26 earnings (in line), with weaker volumes offset by stronger yields and higher private mix (89% of total).
MIKA maintained a double-digit top line growth guidance, but with more gradual margin expansion amid higher costs and new hospital ramp-up.
We lowered our FY26/27F EBITDA est. by 3/5% and TP to Rp3,300, but maintain Buy rating on attractive valuation and resilient growth outlook.

1Q26 Results: Solid Yield Growth Amid Softer Volumes

MIKA reported net profit of Rp326bn in 1Q26 (+4.8% yoy, -6.3% qoq), forming 22% of consensus estimates, broadly in line. Revenue grew 6.6% yoy to Rp1.36tr, reflecting favorable case-mix with higher contribution from high-complexity services (+27% yoy; 27% of revenue vs. 23% in 1Q25), while the qoq decline reflects Ramadan seasonality. Operationally, volumes softened (IP days/OP visits: -2.5%/-2.8% yoy), but this was offset by stronger yields, with IP revenue/day (+8.4% yoy) and OP revenue/visit (+11.7% yoy). EBITDA margin came in lower at 37.3% (-50bps yoy, -80bps qoq), mainly due to seasonality and higher cost intensity, including a one-off bonus payment and initial ramp-up from newer hospitals. Private patient contribution increased to 89% in 1Q26 (vs. 88% in FY25 and 87% in 1Q25), supporting overall revenue quality.

Top-line Guidance Intact Amid Early Signs of Volume Recovery

Management maintains its FY26 guidance, expecting double-digit top line growth with EBITDA margin at 38.8–39.5%, supported by continued case-mix improvement. Patient traffic has begun to recover post-1Q seasonality, with Apr26 showing a c.20% mom rebound. Mgmt. also sees potential upward pressure on drug and consumables costs amid ongoing geopolitical tensions; while this is largely manageable through pass-through mechanisms for private patients, this may still pose some pressure on the BPJS segment.

Lowered Our FY26/27 EBITDA Estimates by 3/5%

We slightly lowered our FY26/27F EBITDA estimates by -3%/-5%, mainly reflecting higher operating cost assumptions and a more gradual pace of margin expansion, partly due to the initial ramp-up impact from two new hospitals (i.e., BSD–Greater Jakarta and Malang–East Java) scheduled to commence operations in 4Q26. However, we maintain our bottom-line forecasts, supported by higher interest income, reflecting the company’s stronger net cash position following solid cash generation in FY25. This translates into FY26/27F earnings growth of +10%/+15% yoy.

Maintained Buy with a lower TP of Rp3,300

We maintain our Buy rating with a lower TP of Rp3,300, reflecting our revised operating assumptions and more gradual margin expansion. The stock is currently trading at 10.9x EV/EBITDA (-2.4SD below its 5-year mean), which we view as attractive given its resilient earnings profile and improving service mix. Key risks include higher-than-expected cost inflation, slower-than-expected patient volume recovery, and new hospital ramp-up execution risks.

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