MAP Aktif Adiperkasa (MAPA IJ)

Decent Growth Outlook Amid a Consolidation Year; Resuming Coverage with Buy Rating

• We see the company’s consolidation and efficiency initiatives this year as positive, as they could lay the foundation for stronger growth esp in FY26F.
• We forecast its revenue and net profit growth of +15% and +13% yoy in FY25F, driven by new stores opening and continued tight cost control.
• Resuming our coverage with a Buy rating and a TP of Rp970. MAPA trades at an attractive 13.7x PE FY25F, given the above-peers growth outlook.

Seasonal weakness in demand in 2Q25

Post MAPA’s 2.9% SSSG in 1Q25, which is partly supported by Eid festivity, we expect some seasonal weakness in demand in 2Q25. Our latest discussion with the management indicated that the overall demand in Apr25 was soft, with some improvement seen in May25. We believe there is prospect for improvement in Jun25 sales, supported by the ‘back to school’ period and several big running events taking place during the month.

A consolidation year with ongoing focus on cost efficiency

We observed some encouraging indicators in 1Q25 that could support MAPA in aligning more closely towards its direction of consolidation namely 1) Continued cost management discipline, as indicated by the decline in total opex as a percentage of revenue (-50bps yoy in 1Q25) 2) Net space addition of ~12k sqm 1Q25 was lower than the recent years’ average, allowing for potential productivity improvement across existing stores.

Soft 2Q25F outlook, expect a gradual improvement in 3Q and 4Q

Given the soft seasonality, we expect MAPA’s SSSG to remain muted in 2Q25, with a gradual recovery expected in 3Q25 and 4Q25. We expect the company’s consolidation and efficiency strategy to continue, supported by a lower store opening target of 700 gross stores in FY25 (vs. FY24’s realization of 983 net stores). Additionally, some of the cost-saving measures include tighter ads & promotion spending, increased automation for lesser labour force, and optimized labor scheduling. Therefore, we conservatively estimate MAPA’s SSSG of 2.7% with 15.2% projected revenue growth in FY25F. We forecast FY25 gross margin to contract by 110bps, driven by promotions (due to high inventory) and IDR weakness through mid-May and project +13.3% yoy net profit growth in FY25F.

Resuming coverage with Buy rating and TP of Rp970

We resume coverage on MAPA with a Buy rating, supported by a solid double-digit growth outlook this year, despite the company entering a normalization phase following an aggressive expansion over the past three years. Our TP of Rp970 is based on 17.9x PE multiple. MAPA trades at 13.7x PE FY25F (-1sd to 2-year mean) and relatively par to peers which we think is attractive given its superior growth outlook. Key downside risks are 1) excess inventory due to slowdown in demand, 2) IDR depreciation as most of its products are imported.  

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