MAP Aktif Adiperkasa (MAPA IJ)

Domestic Momentum Strengthens; Margins Remain Resilient

• Domestic operations remained MAPA’s key growth driver, supported by store expansion and improving cons spending; overseas growth was led by Philippines & Thailand.
• Strong 1H26 growth may trigger revenue guidance upgrade, while margins remain resilient and store expansion are on track.
• Reiterate Buy with higher TP of Rp800, implying -0.5std of 3yr mean of 12.2x PE FY26F.

Domestic market drives growth, overseas focus on outperforming markets

Domestic operations remained MAPA’s key growth driver in 1H26, with revenue growing +17.0% yoy and contributing ~76% to its total revenue. Mgmt. noted that purchasing power has improved gradually with consumer spending showing encouraging trends in 3Q26. We expect domestic growth to remain supported by store expansion and improved sales conversion from stronger traffic. Overseas revenue grew +9.4% yoy in 1H26, led by Philippines and Thailand, which together contributed ~74% of export revenue. Vietnam posted the highest growth at +58% yoy. Going forward, mgmt. remains selective on overseas expansion, prioritizing store productivity and focusing on markets with stronger growth potential. 

Potential topline growth guidance upgrade; margins likely intact

We think mgmt. may upgrade its conservative high single digit rev growth guidance post 3Q26, as 1H26 rev growth of +15.1% yoy was well ahead of guidance. Meanwhile, gross and EBIT margin guidance of 46-47% and 12-13% is likely to be maintained amid recent FX volatility. 2Q26 gross margin declined 150bps yoy to 46.5%, mainly due to IDR depreciation and thus, affecting higher inventory costs. Mgmt. expect to pass on most of FX-related cost increased through pricing, with new inventory carrying a ~5-10% buffer. In terms of store expansion, MAPA opened 167 gross new stores in 1H26, putting it on track to meet its FY26F target of 300 gross new stores.  

Maintain Buy with higher TP of Rp800

We maintained our FY26 forecasts as 1H26 performance and latest run rate remains broadly in line with our estimates. We trim FY27F rev growth by 0.4%, reflecting a more conservative SSSG assumption of 2.3%. However, lower opex assumptions, in line with MAPA’s focus on store productivity, lift FY27F earnings by 0.5%. We reiterate our Buy rating with higher TP of Rp800, based on an unchanged -0.5std of 3yr mean PE, now stood at 12.2x (from 11.4x). Key risks include weaker-than-expected purchasing power, further softening in few overseas markets, and FX volatility.

… Read More 20260909 MAPA