GOTO Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO.IJ Rp53; BUY TP Rp80) 1Q26 Earnings: First Net Profit Achieved, EBITDA Beat, But Guidance Held on Macro Risks

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GOTO Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ)

1Q26 Earnings: First Net Profit Achieved, EBITDA Beat, But Guidance Held on Macro Risks

GOTO posted its first net profit (Rp258bn) in 1Q26, supported by loan book growth to Rp9.9tr, while ODS GTV rose a modest 4% yoy.
Guidance maintained at Rp3.2–3.4tr FY26F EBITDA; potential cost pass-through flagged under fuel price risks.
Maintained Buy rating (TP: Rp80); Buyback pace to accelerate on strong FCF generation and cash position.

First positive earnings; Strong GTF, ODS GTV growth still challenged

GOTO reported its first-ever net profit of Rp258bn (30%/37% of FY26F ours/ cons. estimates); Adj. EBITDA reached Rp907bn, +35% qoq (30% of our est.). The strong performance was primarily driven by GTF with loan book expanding to Rp9.9tr (+12.7% qoq), supported by continued growth in MTU to 27.5mn (+5% qoq) and initial contribution from merchant lending (~Rp0.5tr). Meanwhile, ODS experienced a sequential decline in GTV and revenue, largely due to seasonal factors, while its modest +4% yoy GTV growth highlights ongoing challenges in scaling the mass market. Nonetheless, GOTO continues to demonstrate strong traction in the affluent segment, as reflected in margin expansion, with ODS adj. EBITDA margin improving by +35bps qoq to 2.7%.

Guidance maintained despite strong results, reflecting macro caution

GOTO maintained its FY26F group adj. EBITDA guidance at Rp3.2-3.4tr (our forecast of Rp3.0tr), despite a strong 1Q26 performance, reflecting cautious stance amid macro uncertainties, particularly around fuel prices and purchasing power. Management also indicated potential cost pass-through (under a worsening macro scenario), primarily targeting the affluent segment. Following the completion of its cloud migration, GOTO is now focusing on AI transformation, including the rollout of more personalized interfaces across its ecosystem. These initiatives are expected to support a re-acceleration in ODS growth toward high single-digit levels (our forecast: 8.5% yoy).

Maintain Buy rating, with unchanged TP of Rp80

We maintain our forecast and Buy rating with TP of Rp80, underpinned by strong growth in GTF, which we expect to reach Rp2.9tr in 28F adj. EBITDA /58% CAGR 26-28F (GTF contribute ~42% to our SOTP). Management has signaled a potential acceleration in buyback execution under its existing US$200mn program, of which US$114mn has already been executed, supported by improving cash generation (1Q26 adj. FCF: Rp1.3tr) and a solid cash position of Rp23tr. Tactical (3M) view: N, given potential risks from fuel price volatility and weaker consumer spending, as well as execution challenges in penetrating the mass market segment within ODS to achieve high single-digit GTV growth in FY26F.

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