Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ)

4Q24 Earnings: BUKA rebuilt path to EBITDA profitability via revenue growth and rightsizing

 

  • BUKA’s 4Q24 adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed, supported by gaming-led revenue recovery and aggressive cost rationalization.
  • Despite headcount cuts and restructuring, 4Q24 results showed limited disruption supporting an optimistic FY25 outlook for revenue and OPEX.
  • We maintain our BUY rating with TP: Rp165, based on 3.5x -25 revenue, while incorporating a more modest earnings trajectory for BUKA.

 

Revenue recovery with gaming & strong OPEX rationalization cut EBITDA loss

BUKA reported a 4Q24 net loss of Rp958bn, mainly from a Rp605bn mark-to-market investment loss, restructuring costs, and negative adj. EBITDA—but achieved net profit of Rp101bn on adjusted basis. Revenue reached Rp1.06tr (+7.5% qoq, -3.5% yoy), boosted by strong gaming performance under Marketplace. GP/CM dipped to Rp117bn/Rp41bn on inventory-clearance discounts. Still, adj. EBITDA loss narrowed to Rp147bn (+21.0% qoq), benefiting from termination of physical goods and related costs rationalization (SBC, severance, IT optimization, legal, forex, investments). BUKA FY24 core net profit was Rp443bn (+955% yoy), above ests. mainly as a result of G&A reduction, while CM came in Rp388bn (-27.0% yoy).

 

Limited disruption from restructuring with positive revenue trajectory

A ~200 headcount reduction also took place in 4Q, with the restructuring process expected to conclude by 1Q25. Mgmt sees room for further G&A savings in FY25. Despite this process, 4Q24 results suggest limited disruption, as both revenue and adjusted EBITDA recorded growth. Mgmt expects gaming momentum to continue into 2025, with total revenue potentially delivering 2-digit yoy growth, supported by other key verticals. We also welcome BUKA’s plan to formally broaden its reporting into four key segments (see Exh. 3), crystalizing its strategic focus and helping to bridge profitability expectations with analysts.

 

Maintain Buy rating but remain cautious amid structural transition

We fine-tune our forecast by revising BUKA’s revenue higher and updating cash G&A costs to reflect the 4Q24 trajectory. These adjustments lead to NP forecast changes of +104% / +1.4% / -25.2% for FY25–27. We maintain our BUY rating with an unchanged TP of Rp165, based on a 3.5x -25 revenue. Despite the upward revision in FY25, we retain a cautious outlook on BUKA’s earnings, pending clearer signs of sustainability across its evolving business models. Continued rightsizing in human resources and IT may limit digital growth potential and limit upside from a tech-driven valuation re-rating. Key downside risks include weaker revenue growth amid challenging macro.

 

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