- BI may still ease into 2026, but narrower spreads, tighter liquidity, and IDR risks mean focus shifts to policy coordination and transmission.
- Our base case expects a slower easing cycle, stable rupiah, rising foreign ownership, and base case 10-yr yields between 5.63–6.05% in 2025–26.
- The extension of cash stimulus and other fiscal measures will directly support private consumption, keeping growth on track above 5%.
HIGHLIGHTS
- BI Rate – How Low Can It Go
- Yields at Crossroads.
- The Fiscal Drive to Sustain Growth Above 5%.
- Widening spread, outflow continue on bond, while equity saw reversal.
- Upcoming SBSN Auction.
- SBSN Auction Recap.
This Week Key Focus
- United States Fed Rate – October 2025 (Thursday)
- Japan BoJ Rate – October 2025 (Thursday)
- ECB Rate – October 2025 (Thursday)
Last week Key Events
GLOBAL UPDATES
- US headline and core inflation in September 2025 stood at 3.0% year-on-year.
DOMESTIC UPDATES
- Indonesia's broad money (M2) demonstrated accelerating growth in September 2025
- Bank Indonesia announced its decision to hold the BI Rate at 4.75%
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