- Domestic buffers could help defend 7.5% resistance, although external pressures and IDR weakness increase breach risks.
- An October Fed pause offers temporary relief, but persistent inflation risks and further tightening limit its benefits.
- BI's targeted measures support IDR stability and liquidity, but persistent currency pressures favour another 25bps hike.
HIGHLIGHTS
- 10Y INDOGB: Will 7.5% Resistance Hold?
- The External Factor: A Fed Pause, Not a Policy Shift
- BI Rate: Growth vs Stability Policy Trade Off
- Our view: One further 25bps hike to 6.00%
- Global and Domestic Bond Markets
- Fixed Income Flows
This Week Key Focus
- United States Interest Rate Decision – October 2026 (Thursday)
- United States PCE and Core PCE Price Index – September 2026 (Thursday)
- Euro Area Interest Rate Decision – October 2026 (Thursday)
- Japan Interest Rate Decision – October 2026 (Thursday)
- Japan Retail Sales – September 2026 (Thursday)
Last week Key Events
GLOBAL UPDATES
- Japan’s trade deficit widened to USD3.41bn in September 2026
- Japan’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 2.1% YoY in September 2026
DOMESTIC UPDATES
- Bank Indonesia held its policy rate at 5.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting
- Indonesia’s broad money supply (M2) grew 8.3% YoY in September 2026
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