- Contractionary BI monetary policies pose further risk to liquidity. Usage of the excess budget could address growth risk and maintain stability.
- Rate cuts remain on the table, with major central banks signaling imminent rate cuts. We expect more moderate cross-currency volatility.
- China’s ultra bond introduction is expected to revive investment and offset soft domestic consumption, a key positive for Indonesia’s trade.
HIGHLIGHTS
- Caution to Liquidity Trend
- Rate Cut Proposition Remains
- China’s Growth Stimulus
- Capital Market – Despite Stronger IDR, Foreign Inflow Remain Subdued
- Fixed Income Flows
- Planned Auction of State Sharia Securities (SBSN): May 20, 2024
This Week Key Focus
- China Loan Prime Rate – May 2024 (Monday)
- Current Account deficit widened to USD2.2bn (-0.64% of GDP) in 1Q24
- Indonesia BI Rate – May-24 (Wednesday)
Last Week Key Events
Global Updates
- US Inflation eased to 3.4% in April 2024
Domestic Updates
- Trade Balance in Apr-24 reached USD3.56bn
- Retail Sales increased by 9.3% y-y in Mar-24
- Consumer Confidence rose to 127.7 in Apr-24
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