• All eyes are on the final US tariff decision, with Indonesia needing competitiveness gains alongside favorable tariff rates to stay attractive.
• Unfavorable final US tariffs and tough competition could erode Indonesia’s export share in key sectors and raise unemployment.
• DXY stays weak with FFR cuts likely. Lower SRBI yields and rising OMO show room for BI rate cuts despite cautious lending.

HIGHLIGHTS

• The LT Key Risk
• Stronger IDR on Weaker DXY, What’s Next?
• Stronger Rupiah Boosts Bonds Foreign Inflows but Not Equities

This Week Key Focus

• Indonesia FX Reserve – June 2025 (Monday)
• Indonesia Consumer Confidence – June 2025 (Tuesday)
• Indonesia Retail Sales – May 2025 (Wednesday)
• US FOMC Minutes (Thursday)

Last week Key Events

GLOBAL UPDATES

• US unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%,
• The U.S. House approved a Trump’s $3.4 trillion fiscal package,

DOMESTIC UPDATES

• Indonesia’s inflation rose to 1.87% in June 2025
• Indonesia’s trade increasing to USD4.3bn in May 2025
• Indonesia’s government has revised the 2025 state budget

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