- Liquidity shows early signs of improvement as SRBI yields fall and IndONIA drops; fiscal disbursement expected to lead recovery further.
- BI is likely to maintain its dovish stance and have time to assess before proceeding with further rate cuts, given current liquidity conditions.
- US tariff shift could shield Indonesia’s exports, but cheap imports threaten domestic market requiring policies intervention.
HIGHLIGHTS
- Evolving Signals from Liquidity and Rate
- Bank Indonesia: Maintain or Cut Rate? Our view
- US Tarriff Progress: Update on Risk Assessment
- Waiting for the next catalyst
- Upcoming SUN Auction
- SUN Auction Recap
This Week Key Focus
- China’s Export Growth – June 2025 (Monday)
- China’s GDP Growth – 2Q25 (Tuesday)
- United States Inflation – June 2025 (Tuesday)
- Indonesia’s Interest Rate – July 2025 (Wednesday)
Last week Key Events
DOMESTIC UPDATES
- Indonesia’s FX Reserves edged up to USD152.6bn in June 2025
- Consumer confidence edged up to 117.8 in Jun-25
- Indonesia’s retail sales rose 1.9% y-y in May-25
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