- Hawkish Fed signals, rising Treasury term premia, and geopolitical risks continue to build headwinds and elevate market volatility.
- Leadership transition accompanies BI's policy pause, but external headwinds continue limiting room for policy easing.
- Peak rate policy would reduce uncertainty, but insufficient to guarantee sustained market uptrend.
HIGHLIGHTS
- More Hawkish Fed Narratives
- Bank Indonesia: Leadership Transition
- Supportive, But Not Sufficient
- Global and Domestic Bond Markets
- Fixed Income Flows
This Week Key Focus
- Fed Interest Rate Decision – Jul 2026 (Thursday)
- United States PCE and Core PCE Price Index – Jun 2026 (Thursday)
- Japan Retail Sales – Jun 2026 (Friday)
- BoJ Interest rate Decision – Jul 2026 (Friday)
Last week Key Events
GLOBAL UPDATES
- Japan’s annual inflation accelerated to 1.7% YoY in June 2026 from 1.5% in May
DOMESTIC UPDATES
- Bank Indonesia kept the BI Rate unchanged at 5.75% in its July meeting
- Bank lending growth accelerated to 12.1% YoY in June 2026 from 10.8% in May
- Indonesia’s broad money (M2) growth slowed to 8.7% YoY in June 2026
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