Key central banks will hold crucial monetary policy meetings in the 2nd week of Dec with the FOMC meeting as the primary focus of attention. While the market has factored in a faster rate cut in 2024, the upcoming Dot Plot release will determine the market’s future direction. On the domestic front, inflation saw some acceleration, with chili prices remaining a primary contributor. Excess liquidity in banks reached a 6-week high, supported by new US$ securitization instruments and favourable trade balance, and we expect FX Reserves to increase by around US$3bn in Nov 2023.

HIGHLIGHTS

  • What’s Brewing?
  • The Dot Plot vs Market Expectation
  • Domestic Macro Conditions Remain Stable
  • Capital Market Trends: The expectation of faster rate cuts drove the market higher

This Week Key Focus

  • United States Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) – November 223 (Friday)
  • China Trade Balance – November 2023 (Thursday)
  • China Inflation – November 2023 (Saturday)
  • Indonesia FX Reserve – November 2023 (Thursday)
  • Indonesia Consumer Confidence – November 2023 (Friday)

 

 

Last Week Key Events

GLOBAL UPDATES

  • The annual PCE inflation rate in the US cooled to 3% in October 2023
  • US GDP Growth in 3Q23 revised up to 5.2% q-q, annualized
  • Annual inflation in the eurozone fell to 2.4% in November
  • PMI mixed in advanced economies

DOMESTIC UPDATES

  • Nov 23 headline Inflation was recorded at 2.85% y-y / 0.38% m-m
  • State Sharia Securities (SBSN) Auction Plans: 5 Dec 2023

 

 

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