BRIDS Market Pulse

In the spotlight

• Foreign flows reversed; Poultry and Metals outperformed. After four consecutive weeks of inflows (US$680mn), foreign equity flows reversed to -US$254mn, partly driven by last week’s street protests, despite signs of de-escalation this week. Foreign investors have continued to de-risk on large-cap banks, namely BBCA (-US$195mn w-w, YTD: US$1.4bn) and BMRI (-US$45mn w-w, YTD: US$814mn). Despite this, JCI managed to close +0.5% on the week, supported by metals sectors (ANTM +12% w-w, AMMN +3%, MDKA +6%), and conglomerate groups stocks (+DSSA +7% w-w, EMTK +7%, SMMA). The sectoral performance favoured Poultry (+6% w-w), Oil & Gas (+5%) and Metals (+5%), while the large-cap domestic sectors underperformed (Banks -1% w-w, Telco). Consumers sector was among the domestic sectors posting positive performance (+2% w-w), as the sector’s valuation has turned attractive at 11.9x P/E (-1.5SD to 5-year mean), following underperformance (-14% YTD).
• Poultry: Livebird price momentum continues, offsetting the rising feed cost headwinds. Livebird prices surged past Rp20k/kg in the last week of Aug25, up 8.6% w-w to Rp20.1k/kg. Feed cost pressures persist, as corn prices rose 5.2% w-w, while SBM remained relatively soft at ~US$290/t. We believe the recent increase in livebird prices, now above Rp20k/kg, should help offset rising feed costs, particularly from higher local corn prices. This positive trend in livebird prices appears supported by higher government spending and the continued rollout of the MBG program, which should continue and fully reflected in the 4Q25 results. We currently have an Overweight rating on the Poultry sector, with CPIN (Buy TP Rp6,400) as our top pick.   
• MAPA: Laying the groundwork for a stronger 4Q25 and beyond We remain cautious on 3Q25 outlook despite Jul25 sales tracking reasonably well, as the successful ‘Buy1 Get1’ event is expected to impact GPM. We anticipate a more meaningful recovery in 4Q25 driven by year-end seasonality, while consolidation continues to be the focus.  We maintain our conservative forecasts (FY25-26F EPS growth of 13% and 23%, respectively) and reiterate our Buy rating but with a lower TP of Rp800.
• Coal price: Indonesian coal price indices closed slightly lower w-w, with ICI3 and ICI4 at US$58 and US$43/t. Despite the flattish Indonesian prices, destocking in China’s inventory appeared to continue, in-line with the historical seasonality, hence, setting up the possibility for seasonal restocking to start by end of 3Q25/ early 4Q25.

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