BRIDS Market Pulse  

28 April 2025 (1).png

In the spotlight

 

  • Global risk sentiment continued to improve, with VIX index falling to 25 amid optimism about US-China trade de-escalation and as concerns about Fed’s independence dissipated. Gold price retreated (-2% w-w) along with the improved risk sentiment, while USD slightly recovered (DXY still hovered at 99-100), offering support for metals prices.
  • The more optimistic view from global investors has started to benefit EM as some markets have seen positive foreign investors’ flows (e.g., India US$1.5bn, Taiwan US$1.2bn, Brazil US$487mn).  Foreign investors remained net sellers in Indonesian equity market, but with noticeably lower outflow of US$69mn (vs. YTD weekly average of US$167mn).
  • JCI rose 3.7% w-w, outperforming the regional peers on improved confidence from the domestic investors. JCI’s performance was driven by the Consumer Staples (+9.6% w-w) on the back of UNVR’s 1Q25 earnings beat, continued strength in Metals (+8% w-w) on sustained strength in metal prices, and laggard sectors: Property (+8% w-w), Utilities (+    9% w-w). Meanwhile, Banks slightly underperformed JCI, up 3.5% w-w.
  • BBCA: decent 1Q25 earnings, but higher NPL. BBCA’s 1Q25 net profit (+10% yoy) met ours and consensus expectation, with 10% yoy PPOP growth offsetting higher provisioning (+16% yoy). The bank’s NPL ratio rose to 2.0% (+33bps qoq), with the textile sector contributing the highest (~35% of NPL). LaR also increased to 6.0%, but adjusting for a one-off restructured debtor in the mineral sector, it normalized at ~5.4%. BBCA underperformed the sector (+1.2% w-w) post earnings.
  • UNVR: 1Q25 earnings improved qoq. While net profit was still down -16% yoy, 1Q25 earnings formed 36-37% of ours/ cons. expectation. Management views qoq performance as healthy indication following completion of its price harmonization and inventory reduction, with expectation of positive growth in 2H25.
  • 1Q25 earnings this week. We expect 1Q25 earnings to be in line for Banks and soft for Consumers and Telco, though we think that this has been built into investors’ expectations.

 

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