BRIDS Market Pulse

26 Jan 2026 (1).png

In the spotlight

 

  • JCI corrected amid rising volatility on conglo stocks de-risking and foreign outflows
  • JCI closed the week down -1.4% w-w amid rising volatility, with downside pressure concentrated in conglo stocks (PTRO, BREN, BRPT, BUMI) amid de-risking of names previously viewed as candidates for next MSCI index inclusion, alongside weakness in large-cap banks, particularly BBCA (-5% w-w) amid heavy foreign selling.

 

  • Sector underperformance was led by Heavy Equipment (UNTR -12% w-w) following news flow surrounding a potential license revocation at the Martabe gold mine, which spilled over into Automotive (ASII -3% w-w). Banks also lagged, driven by continued selling pressure in BBCA. In contrast, investors flows rotated into Coal,  Cigarettes, and Oil & Gas, while Telco and Metals continued to benefit from positive industry and commodities price sentiment.

 

  • Foreign funds flow reversed to a US$192mn net outflow, ending 15 consecutive weeks of inflows, with the largest weekly selling concentrated in BBCA, BUMI, and GOTO. On a six-week rolling basis, ANTM and INCO remain the most consistently accumulated names, followed by ASII, UNTR, and TLKM. In contrast, inflows into domestic growth proxies remain limited in aggregate, with buying interest in BBRI, TLKM, PGAS, INDF, and MAPI outweighed by continued net selling in large-cap banks (ex-BBRI).

 

  • Week ahead catalysts: Global markets focus will center on the FOMC mid-week, with no change in Fed rate expected, but any shift in Powell’s language on the timing of cuts could potentially reprice global risk appetite and USD direction. Domestically, Rupiah weakness and market’s recent concerns on central bank’s independence may remain a key macro risk, while equity investors will remain in anticipation of MSCI’s upcoming decision.

 

  • Poultry FY26 Outlook: A prime time to harvest (maintained OW). After FY25F’s high base, Victor expects a moderate earnings growth for FY26F due to conservative chicken price assumptions and elevated feed costs.  Higher GPS import quota will lead to excessive supply in FY27-28F, but FY26F supply-demand dynamic will be more favorable than FY25F.  We maintain Overweight rating, with early accumulation to reap the benefits of favorable supply-demand, Eid festive, and harvest season. Our top pick in the sector is CPIN (Buy, TP Rp5,600)

 

  • WIFI: initiate coverage with Buy rating and TP of Rp4,400, tactical (3M) UW. Analyst Kafi Ananta sees WIFI uniquely positioned amid FTTH cost advantage and FWA-driven growth momentum and initiate coverage with Buy Rating. We believe WIFI benefits from its structurally lower FTTH capex and project the company to reach ~12mn subs. by FY30F, with FWA as the primary driver. As a high-growth play in the sector, WIFI currently trades at an attractive 5x FY27F EV/ EBITDA. Despite our positive long-term view, we see near-term sentiment on the stock may remain challenged as investors focus shifts from growth to profitability visibility following the 3Q25 earnings miss.

 

  • MIDI (Buy, TP Rp550): Operational recovery continues in 4Q25 and Jan26. An update from analyst Christy Halim sees MIDI’s operational performance indicated sustained improvement, with SSSG turning positive at end-FY25 and reaching mid-single digit in early Jan26. We adjusted down SSSG & store expansion assumptions but still expect MIDI to deliver solid +9.4% rev & +16.8% earnings growth in FY26F.  We reiterate Buy rating with an unchanged TP of Rp550; current 14.1x FY26F PE is attractive given the potential growth prospects.

 

  • Commodities:
  • Metals: Base metals prices continued to see positive sentiment, with copper up ~2% w-w supported by tight supply and improving demand outlook. Nickel rose ~3% w-w, driven by renewed focus on Indonesia’s ore quota guidance, which reinforced view over supply discipline. Tin gained ~2.5% w-w, extending its strong recent momentum amid continued tightness in refined market balances. Meanwhile, gold surged +8% w-w, marking its strongest weekly performance, as investors rotated aggressively into safe-haven assets on a softer US dollar and rising macro/political uncertainty.

 

  • Coal: Indonesian coal price rose (ICI3: US$62/t, 0.2% w-w, ICI4: US$47/t, 1.1% w-w) despite reports of softening Chinese buying amid stabilizing domestic prices.

 

 

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