BRIDS Market Pulse: Chart of the week – Forward P/E

Stock Code	Last Price	Change	Change %
MLPT	39.500	2.575	6,97%
INKP	7.225	425	6,25%
SURE	3.120	340	12,23%
FILM	2.030	330	19,41%
MPRO	2.820	330	13,25%
INTP	5.575	325	6,19%
TPIA	9.550	275	2,96%
RAJA	2.870	260	9,96%

BRIDS Market Pulse

In the spotlight

Market review:
JCI rose +3.8% w-w, outperforming EM peers and driving YTD performance to +3.3%. JCI’s positive performance, however, was mainly driven by strong gains from an illiquid large-cap stock DCII (+62% w-w) and stocks related to Prajogo group namely BREN (+31% w-w), BRPT (+26%), CDIA (+144%), PTRO (+15%), following announcement from MSCI which indicates possibility of the group’s stocks being included in the MSCI index.
Consumer and Banks underperformed (-2% w-w), with Cement recording worst performance (-7% w-w) following confirmation of another weak monthly volume (-7.3% yoy) in Jun25. BI surprise 25bps policy rate cut failed to lift sentiment, indicating investors’ concern on 2Q25 earnings. Telco, our top sector pick, outperformed (+5% w-w), as industry price repairs appear to be on track, as indicated in our Jul25 price tracker.
Foreign investor’s flow remained negative with -US$101mn of outflow during the week, bringing YTD outflow to US$3.6bn, with notable outflows in bank stocks: BBCA (-US$59mn) and BMRI (-US$118mn), although BBRI saw an inflow of US$26mn.

JCI vs. IDX80 and LQ45 YTD performance and valuation. On YTD basis, JCI outperformed ASEAN peers with +3.3% return. However, this also reflected gains from DCII (+482% YTD) and conglo-related stocks DSSA and BRPT. Meanwhile, IDX80 and LQ45 indices lagged with -4.6% YTD, dragged by the large-cap banks mainly BBCA (-10%) and BMRI (8.5%). Following recent performances, JCI’s valuation has re-rated to 13.4x PE (-0.8sd to 10-year mean), while IDX80 and LQ45 has de-rated to 10.3x (-1.5sd to 5-year mean) and -10.5x (-2.3sd to 10-year mean and close to record low level in Apr25). We believe LQ45 and IDX80 valuation suggests that a soft earnings outlook is largely priced in. Bloomberg consensus currently forecasts 12-month forward growth of -11% for LQ45.

Cement sector. We see lack of long-term catalysts despite 2H25 potential (seasonal) volume recovery and reinitiate coverage with Neutral rating. Our cement and property analyst Ismail sees 1H25 overall volume remaining subdued at -1% yoy and expects 2H25 volume to potentially recover (~+1% yoy), mainly driven by gov’t spending acceleration. Cost-efficiency remains a key competitive edge for the players, especially amid a price sensitive market and relatively benign input prices. On this basis, INTP (Buy, TP Rp6,200) remains our top sector pick.

DEWA: we initiate coverage with Buy rating and DCF-based TP of Rp800. DEWA has executed plans to revamp its fleet of heavy equipment through a Rp2.6tr loan and a vendor-financing deal with XCMG. We project its earnings to grow by 54% CAGR over 25-27F driven by lower subcontractor expenses as it substitutes outsourced services with own fleet. DEWA currently trades at 28x/14x 2025-26F PE, a premium compared to its peers, but we think this is justified given it is still in its growth phase.

Commodities:
Coal: ICI3 and ICI4 prices have continued to show signs of stabilization, trading at US$55.6/t and US$40.7/t respectively, despite the soft demand season and ongoing destocking at China port inventory. This may indicate cost support from Indonesian producers (at US$40-45/t for ICI4) with potential rebound from seasonal winter restocking by end of 3Q.
Nickel: Saprolite ore premium stays flattish w-w at US$24/wmt as mkt price remained at US$52/ wmt (CIF). Meanwhile, NPI price also stabilized at US$11k/mt, flat w-w, amid still tepid SS demand for restocking.