BRIDS Market Pulse

In the spotlight

• Investors have continued to regain confidence on JCI, which recorded +2.0% w-w (-3.7% YTD), with LQ45 also rising 1.8% w-w. While JCI’s positive w-w performance was aligned with that of regional peers, it outperformed on mom basis (+3.9% mom), putting it as the best performer among EMs. During the week, Healthcare (+9.4% w-w), Poultry (+5.2% w-w) and Retailers (+3.2% w-w) outperformed, while Consumers underperformed, indicating mixed reaction from 1Q25 results. Investors’ better confidence was also reflected in the foreign flows which started to turn positive (albeit still small at US$7.3mn), with notable inflows into large banks BBCA and BBRI. 
• Apr25 Domestic funds positioning also reflected a bullish view, with additional exposure into Banks (+192bps), along with Retailers (+30bps), while reducing Metals (46bps) and Telco (-42bps), based on KSEI data. Domestic investors’ positioning in Banks as of Apr25 reflected the highest level of +585bps OW. Aside from Banks, investors also remained OW in Consumers (+286bps) and Telco (+210bps), although both were reduced in Apr25.
• 1Q25 results: soft growth but as expected (52% of companies under our coverage reported in-line results). Nonetheless, as 36% of companies missed expectations, we still see a downside risk to FY25 earnings forecast. The key sectors have generally managed to meet expectations in 1Q25, with Banks (in line), Consumers (mixed results: beat from KLBF, UNVR, still in line results for ICBP despite tepid revenue growth, misses from MYOR and SIDO), Retailers (majority were in line, a miss from ACES), Telco (in line from TLKM, miss from ISAT). The majority of 1Q25 earnings miss came from the Coal miners, reflecting a combination of production shortfall due to unfavourable weather conditions which in turn drove higher cost. Meanwhile, Metals sector delivered a mix results with ANTM beating expectations due to strong nickel ore volumes and gold price, while TINS and NCKL missed.
• Commodities: improving sentiment amid hope of tariff de-escalation drove flows out from gold and brought correction in the metals space, as USD also strengthened.  Coal prices have extended their correction, with Newcastle futures at US$97/t and ICI4 at US$48/t, as port inventories in China continue to decline.

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