HIGHLIGHTS
- The yield on the US Treasury 10-year note decreased by 6 basis points (bps) week-on-week, reaching 3.66% on September 13, 2024. Similarly, the 2-year US Treasury yield fell by 9 bps to 3.57% over the same period. Consequently, the yield on Indonesian Government Bonds (INDOGB) with a 10-year maturity also declined by 3 bps to 6.59% on September 13, 2024, from 6.62% on September 6, 2024.
- The US Dollar Index fell by 0.20% from the previous week, whereas the Rupiah depreciated by 0.23%, concluding at Rp15,400 per US Dollar as of September 13, 2024. Additionally, the 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) for Indonesia increased by 1 bp week-on-week, reaching 71 bps on September 12, 2024.
- The trading volume for government bonds was IDR 31.43 trillion, primarily consisting of medium-term bonds (5-15 years). This represents a decrease from the previous day's volume of IDR 43.76 trillion and is below the year-to-date average of IDR 45.47 trillion. The outright transaction volume was IDR 16.14 trillion, down from IDR 19.86 trillion the previous day.
- Corporate bond trading totaled IDR 1,007 billion, with a predominance of short-term bonds (less than 5 years). This marks a decline from the prior day's volume of IDR 1,095 billion and is below the year-to-date average of IDR 1,912 billion. The outright transaction volume was IDR 1,007 billion, a decrease from IDR 1,090 billion the previous day.
- The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) increased by 0.18%, rising from 7,798 to 7,812. Brent crude oil prices rose from USD 71.01 to USD 74.60 per barrel, while the WTI Cushing Crude Oil Spot price climbed from USD 67.31 to USD 68.97 per barrel.
GLOBAL UPDATES
- China's economy continued to weaken based on a string of data for Aug-24. Retail sales growth fell to 2.1% y-y from 2.7% in Jul-24, missing consensus of 2.5%. Industrial Production, the economy's driver as China rely's on export to offset the weak consumption, slowed to 4.5% y-y from 5.1%. To exacerbate the situation, newly built home price declined by 5.3% y-y, a 14th consecutive months of decline and the steepest since May-15. The loan growth also fell to 8.5% y-y, the lowest since 1998. (Bloomberg, Trading Economics)
- US Consumer Sentiment rose for a 2nd consecutive months to 69 in Sep-24, the highest since May-24, according to a report by University of Michigan. "The gain was led by an improvement in buying conditions for durables, driven by more favorable prices as perceived by consumers. Year-ahead expectations for personal finances and the economy both improved as well, despite a modest weakening in views of labor markets", according to the Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. (Trading Economics)
DOMESTIC UPDATES
- The government will conduct an auction for Government Bonds (SUN) on Tuesday, September 17, 2024. The series to be offered in this auction include SPN03241218 (New Issuance), SPN12250918 (New Issuance), FR0104 (Reopening), FR0103 (Reopening), FR0098 (Reopening), FR0097 (Reopening), and FR0102 (Reopening). The government has set a target of IDR 22 trillion for this auction, with a maximum target of IDR 33 trillion. The results of the Government Bond auction on September 3 indicated a total bid volume of IDR 45.49 trillion, significantly lower than the IDR 104.07 trillion recorded in the previous auction on August 20, 2024. The auction awarded IDR 22 trillion, in line with the government's target of IDR 22 trillion. Consequently, the bid-to-cover ratio for this auction was 2.07x. BRI Danareksa Sekuritas projects an estimated range for the upcoming auction's total incoming bids between IDR45 trillion and IDR55 trillion, with an expected bid-to-cover ratio ranging from 2.05x – 2.50x. (DJPPR, BRIDS Estimated)
To see the full version of this daily update, please click here
