HIGHLIGHTS
- On October 25, 2023 the 10-year UST yield rose to 4.95%, from 4.83% the previous day. Then yield of 10-year Government Bonds is 7.245% on October 25, 2023, vs 7.260% the day before.
- Government bonds volume was IDR40.73 trillion, and it was dominated by short term (< 5 years). It was was up than the previous day transaction of IDR26.80 trillion. The volume lower than its YTD average of IDR46.35 trillion. while the outright transaction reached IDR17.28 trilion increased from the previous day's transaction which amount to IDR12.07 trilion.
- Meanwhile, the total volume of corporate bonds was recorded at IDR2,298.89 billion, dominated by short term (< 5 years). The transaction volume fell compared to the previous day's volume of IDR3,563.81 billion. The volume higher compared to this year's average of IDR1,940.29 billion. Meanwhile, outright transaction recorded at IDR2,298.89 billion fell from the previous day's transaction of IDR3,544.81 billion.
- The Rupiah exchange rate against the US Dollar by 0.13% weakened to IDR15,870 from IDR15,850 while the JCI was up 0.41% from 6,807 to 6,834. Then Brent dropped from 93.14 to 88.75 USD per barrel, while WTI Cushing Crude Oil Spot price dropped from 86.39 to 84.39 USD per barrel.
GLOBAL UPDATES
- US New Home Sales hit a 19-month high of 0.76 million in Sep-23 (compared to 0.68 million in Aug.). The large increases were bolstered by the scarcity of previously owned homes and by buyer incentives like discounts. (Reuters)
DOMESTIC UPDATES
- The State Budget Surplus in 9M23 has decreased to IDR 67.7tn, which accounts for 0.32% of the GDP. This is lower than our initial expectation of a surplus at 0.48% of the GDP due to higher fiscal spending in Sept. (Kompas)
- As of September 2023, government revenue has reached IDR 2,035.6 tn, up 3.1% y-y, in line with our projected figure of IDR 2,034tn. Cumulative 9M23 revenue reached IDR 1,967.9tn, reflecting a 2.8% y-y growth. Notably, in September alone, government expenditures reached IDR 293.2tn, marking the highest monthly spending in 2023.
Looking ahead, we anticipate a larger fiscal operation, with our year-end budget deficit estimated to be -2.0% of the GDP, lower than the government's target of 2.3% deficit. The government is expected to increase spending in October (primarily for fiscal support) and in December (mainly for subsidy payments). We project that overall spending in the 4Q23 will amount to IDR 1,163.9tn, up 63.4% q-q.
To see the full version of this daily update, please click here
