HIGHLIGHTS
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exhibited volatility, moving from 4.08% on October 14 to a low of 4.02% on October 16, before returning to 4.08% on October 18. In contrast, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilized at 3.95% throughout this period. Correspondingly, the yield on the 10-year Indonesian Government Bond (INDOGB) decreased by 2 basis points, settling at 6.66% on October 18, 2024, down from 6.68% on October 11, 2024.
- The U.S. Dollar Index appreciated by 0.79% week-over-week, while the Indonesian Rupiah gained 0.74%, closing at IDR 15,465 per U.S. Dollar on October 18, 2024. Meanwhile, Indonesia's 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) remained stable at 69 basis points during the same timeframe.
- The total volume of government bonds traded reached IDR 55.21 trillion, with a primary focus on medium-term bonds (5-15 years). This figure represents a decline from the previous day's transaction volume of IDR 57.50 trillion, although it is still above the year-to-date average of IDR 45.97 trillion. Notably, outright transaction volume increased to IDR 27.15 trillion, up from IDR 23.59 trillion the day prior.
- In the corporate bond market, total trading volume was recorded at IDR 1,749 billion, mainly in short-term bonds (less than 5 years). This indicates a decrease from the previous day's volume of IDR 2,465 billion and falls below this year's average of IDR 1,923 billion. Outright transactions also declined, falling to IDR 1,723 billion from IDR 2,465 billion the day before.
- The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) rose by 0.32%, climbing from 7,735 to 7,760. Additionally, Brent crude oil prices increased from USD 74.06 to USD 74.18 per barrel, while WTI Cushing Crude Oil Spot prices rose from USD 70.39 to USD 70.67 per barrel.
GLOBAL UPDATES
- China Macro Data for Sep-24 (vs. Aug-24/Consensus) :
- House Price: -5.7% y-y (vs. 5.3%)
- GDP 3Q24: 4.6% y-y (vs. 4.7%/4.5%)
- Industrial Production: 5.4% y-y (4.5%/4.6%)
- Retail Sales: 3.2% y-y (2.1%/2.5%)
- Unemployment Rate: 5.1% (5.3%/5.3%) (Bloomberg)
DOMESTIC UPDATES
- Prabowo has announced his cabinet members. Sri Mulyani Indrawati stays on the MoF helm, while the vice ministers post still filled by Suahasil Nazara and Thomas Djiwandono, with the addition of Anggito Abimanyu. Prabowo appointed a total of 109 people in minister, vice minister, and other equivalent post. (Kompas)
- Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani expects Indonesia GDP growth in 3Q24 more than 5%, supported by household consumption, especially the middle-upper class. The investment growth will be supported by the National Strategic Project (PSN) and IKN development. (Bisnis)
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