HIGHLIGHTS
- The 10-year US Treasury yield exhibited significant volatility, starting at 4.37% on November 1, dropping to 4.26% by November 5, before rising to 4.42% on November 6, and then falling again to 4.30% on November 8. Meanwhile, the 2-year US Treasury yield increased by 5 basis points to 4.26% on November 8. As a result, the 10-year Indonesian Government Bond (INDOGB) yield saw a modest decline of just 1 basis point, easing to 6.75% on November 8, 2024, from 6.76% on November 1, 2024.
- The US Dollar Index saw a decline of 0.16% compared to the previous week, while the Indonesian Rupiah depreciated by 0.32%, closing at IDR 15,670 per US Dollar on November 8, 2024. Additionally, Indonesia's 5-year Credit Default Swap (CDS) fell by 3 basis points week-over-week, reaching 69 basis points on November 8, 2024.
- The volume of government bond transactions amounted to IDR 45.49 trillion, with most trades concentrated in short-term bonds (less than 5 years). This represents an increase compared to the previous day's transaction volume of IDR 38.71 trillion. However, it was slightly below the year-to-date (YTD) average volume of IDR 45.69 trillion. Meanwhile, outright transactions totalled IDR 17.28 trillion, a slight decrease from the previous day's total of IDR 17.34 trillion.
- The total volume of corporate bond transactions was recorded at IDR 1,892 billion, predominantly in short-term bonds (less than 5 years). This marked an increase compared to the previous day's volume of IDR 1,461 billion and was slightly above the YTD average of IDR 1,890 billion. Outright transactions in corporate bonds amounted to IDR 1,887 billion, reflecting an increase from the previous day's total of IDR 1,421 billion.
- The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) rose by 0.60%, advancing from 7,244 to 7,287. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil dropped from USD 76.03 to USD 75.62 per barrel, while the WTI Cushing Crude Oil Spot price increased from USD 71.69 to USD 72.36 per barrel.
GLOBAL UPDATES
- China National People’s Congress put out the latest stimulus that aimed to reduce local government’s hidden debt. China plans to increase the quota for local special bonds by 6 trillion yuan (US$838.1 billion) over the next three years. Separately, a total of 4 trillion yuan has been reallocated from local government budgets to swap out hidden debts over five years. Via the above measures, the hidden debts of local governments are expected to be decreased from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan by the end of 2028. The local swap will help reduce interest payment burdens by 600 billion yuan over the next five years. (SCMP)
- US consumer sentiment for the US increased to 73 in November 2024, the highest in seven months, compared to 70.5 in October and above forecasts of 71, preliminary estimates showed. However, the reading do not capture any reactions to election results. The expectations index soared to 78.5, the highest since July 2021, from 74.1 in the previous month. Expectations over personal finances climbed 6% in part due to strengthening income prospects, and short-run business conditions soared 9%. (Trading Economics)
DOMESTIC UPDATES
- Indo fiscal deficit widened to IDR309.2tn or 1.37% of GDP as of Oct-24. Gov’t spending rose by 14.1% y-y to IDR2,556.7tn and revenue rose by 0.3% y-y to IDR2,247.6tn. (Bisnis)
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