HIGHLIGHTS
- The yield on 10-year Indonesian Government Bonds stood at 6.282% on September 18, 2025, slightly lower than 6.285% in the previous session. Meanwhile UST 10yr yield rose by 5bps to 4.11% yesterday.
- The total trading volume of government bonds reached IDR62.96 trillion, dominated by short-term maturities (< 5 years). This marked a decline from IDR66.91 trillion recorded the day before, yet remained above the year-to-date (YTD) average of IDR50.21 trillion. Outright transactions amounted to IDR39.22 trillion, down from IDR44.59 trillion in the prior session.
- Corporate bond trading volume totaled IDR2.40 trillion, also dominated by short-term maturities (< 5 years). This represented an increase from IDR1.81 trillion in the previous session but was still below the YTD average of IDR3.29 trillion. Outright transactions were recorded at IDR2.40 trillion, higher than IDR1.66 trillion in the prior day.
- In the currency and equity markets, the Rupiah depreciated by 0.46% to IDR16,505 per USD from IDR16,430, while the JCI slipped 0.21% from 8,025 to 8,008. In commodities, Brent crude oil declined to USD68.19 per barrel from USD68.47, and WTI crude oil fell to USD64.05 per barrel from USD64.52.
GLOBAL UPDATES
- The FOMC cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 4–4.25%. The dot plot signals an additional 50 bps cut by end-2025 and 25 bps in 2026, slightly more than June projections. New Governor Stephen Miran dissented, favoring a 50 bps cut. The Fed downgraded its labor market view, citing slower job gains, a higher but still low unemployment rate, and rising downside risks. Inflation is seen at 3.1% in 2025, while growth projections were revised up to 1.6% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. (The Fed, Bloomberg)
DOMESTIC UPDATES
- The DPR Budget Committee and Finance Ministry agreed to revise the 2026 draft state budget, raising the deficit to Rp689.15 trillion or 2.68% of GDP from 2.48%. The increase is driven by higher spending, up Rp56.2 trillion to Rp3,842.7 trillion, including ministry/agency spending of Rp1,510.5 trillion and regional transfers of Rp693 trillion. State revenue was set at Rp3,153.6 trillion, supported by higher tax revenue of Rp2,693.7 trillion, customs and excise Rp336 trillion, and non-tax revenue Rp459.2 trillion. (MoF, DPR RI)liquidity via SRBI reduction, IDR 217tn SBN purchases, and IDR 384tn bank liquidity incentives. Faster pass-through to banking rates is expected to support credit recovery alongside fiscal expansion. (Bank Indonesia)
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