HIGHLIGHTS
- The yield on 10-year Indonesia Government Bonds stood at 6.383% on September 11, 2025, easing from 6.422% in the previous session. Meanwhile, UST 10yr yield declined by 3bps to 4.01% yesterday.
- Government bond trading volume reached IDR47.60 trillion, with activity concentrated in short-term tenors (< 5 years). The figure declined from IDR51.33 trillion the day before and fell below the year-to-date (YTD) average of IDR50.09 trillion. Meanwhile, outright transactions amounted to IDR39.34 trillion, improving from the previous day’s IDR28.09 trillion.
- Total corporate bond trading volume was recorded at IDR1.60 trillion, also dominated by short-term tenors (< 5 years). This marked a decline from IDR2.84 trillion in the prior session and remained below the YTD average of IDR3.31 trillion. Outright transactions stood at IDR1.59 trillion, down from IDR2.84 trillion the previous day.
- In the broader market, the Rupiah weakened slightly by 0.01% to IDR16,462 per USD from IDR16,461, while the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) advanced 0.64% to 7,748 from 7,699. On the commodities front, Brent crude rose to USD67.03 per barrel from USD66.57, and WTI Cushing crude increased to USD63.67 per barrel from USD62.63.
GLOBAL UPDATES
- US inflation accelerated in August, with CPI rising 0.4% m-m and 2.9% y-y, the fastest since January, while core CPI climbed 0.3% m/m and 3.1% annualized, in line with forecasts. Price pressures stemmed from food, electricity, cars, and travel, partly due to Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, jobless claims jumped to 263,000, the highest since 2021, underscoring labor market weakness. Following this backdrop, 10-year Treasury yields fell as investors bet on Fed easing, with markets pricing a 94% chance of a 25 bps cut next week and a smaller risk of 50 bps. (Bloomberg)
- The ECB kept its deposit rate unchanged at 2% for the second meeting, signaling a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach as inflation stays close to the 2% target and growth risks ease. President Lagarde said disinflation is over, though uncertainty from U.S. tariffs, trade frictions, and French politics persists. Markets priced out further cuts, lifting bond yields and the euro. New projections see inflation at 2.1% (2025), 1.7% (2026), 1.9% (2027) and GDP growth at 1.2% this year and 1% in 2026, underscoring cautious resilience. (Bloomberg, CNBC)
DOMESTIC UPDATES
- Bank Indonesia reported retail sales grew 2.7% YoY in August 2025, with the Real Sales Index (IPR) at 221.7, supported by auto parts, fuel, and cultural goods. On a monthly basis, retail sales contracted 0.3% MoM, an improvement from the 4.1% MoM drop in July, helped by food, beverages, tobacco, and clothing. July’s IPR rose 4.7% YoY. Inflation expectations remain stable for October but are projected to rise in January 2026. (Bank Indonesia)
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