FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Property: KTA from meeting with JLL: Landed-Houses, Retails and Industrial Estate are Growth Proxy (OVERWEIGHT)

• JLL expects landed housing and retail segments to remain strong in FY25F, driven by VAT incentives and stable mall traffic.
• Chinese manufacturers continue to fuel demand for industrial estate, while hotels are resilient, but condos are still in a wait-and-see mode.
• We maintain our OW rating on the sector and prefer developers offering entry-level end-users (Rp1-5bn) landed houses. Top Picks: CTRA, SSIA.

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Bumi Serpong Damai: Trimming Our FY25F/26F Net Profit by -34%/-25%, Well-Connected Township Thesis Remains Intact (BSDE.IJ Rp 890; BUY TP Rp 1,450)

• BSDE’s weak 1Q25 result was due to delays in handovers, which also reflected its projects’ high concentration risks.
• We trimmed our FY25F/26F net profit by -34%/-25% to incorporate risks of delays in handover execution.
• Maintain Buy with a lower TP of Rp1,450; BSDE is an attractive laggard play in the sector as thesis of well-connected township remains intact.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

SILO (Buy, TP Rp3,000) - 1Q25 Results: Broadly In-Line with Ours, Below Consensus

• SILO reported 1Q25 net profit of Rp246bn, forming 21%/18% of our/consensus FY25F estimates of Rp1.16tr/Rp1.36tr. Revenue was flattish at +0.3% yoy, as the Inpatient segment declined by -5% yoy and could not be offset by stronger Outpatient performance at +8% yoy. The decline in IP was primarily due to a high base last year and weak Ramadhan seasonality, which fell entirely in 1Q25.
• Adjusted EBITDA (stripping out 1Q24 one-off impairment expenses) margin also contracted by 220bps on a yoy basis, driven primarily by increasing salary costs in both COGS and Opex, further dragging down net profit.
• Operational results show that IP Rev/Days still improved by 6% yoy despite a 9% yoy decline in IP Admissions, which should signal a more private-dominated payer mix — a trend we also observed in HEAL and MIKA.
• Overall, it was a relatively weak result for SILO, impacted by seasonality effect and elevated salary costs. (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

TLKM (Buy, TP Rp3,900) - AGM approved new management team

TLKM’s AGM approved a new management team which notably includes new CEO Dian Siswarini (ex-CEO of EXCL in 2014-2024) and new CFO Arthur Angelo (prev. CEO of Digital Realty Bersama and with PE background).

• President Director: Dian Siswarini
• Deputy President Director: Muhammad Awaluddin
• Director of Enterprise & Business Service: Veranita Josephine Sinaga
• Director of Digital IT: Faizal Rohmadi Djoemadi
• Director of Human Capital Management: Henry Chistiadi
• Director of Finance & Risk Management : Arthur Angelo
• Director of Network: Nanang Hendarno
• Director of Strategic Business Development dan Portfolio: Seno Soemadji
• Director of Wholesale & International Service: Honesti Basyir

 

Our take: While it is premature to comment on the new management’s strategy, the risk for the industry is if TLKM’s new management still focuses on market share. We noted that during Ibu Dian’s tenure at EXCL, the company enjoyed a healthy increase in ARPU and subscriber base. With the perspective of an industry player/ ex-competitor, we think the new management should aim to promote industry price repair. (Kafi Ananta & Erindra Krisnawan – BRIDS)

 

MARKET NEWS

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update May 28, 2025

Banks: LPS Lowers deposit guarantee rate to 4% and Third-party Fund Growth Target to 6%

The Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation (LPS) lowered the deposit guarantee rate by 25bps to 4%, following two BI rate cuts this year. The new rate applies to commercial banks and will be effective from June 1 to September 30, 2025. It has also revised down its 2025 target for TPF growth from 7% to 6% yoy. This revision follows slower-than-expected deposit growth of 4.55% in Apr25 and continued tight liquidity in the banking sector. (Investor Daily)

 

Bulog Begins Releasing 2024 Corn Reserves to Livestock Farmers

Perum Bulog has released 59,478 tons of the remaining 2024 government corn reserves (CJP) to the market through an auction system. The total amount of 2024 corn reserves designated for auction is 97,131 tons, primarily aimed at supporting independent farmers and small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). According to Bulog, as of May 25, 2025, the company has procured 37,715 tons of CJP—still below the government’s procurement target of approximately 1mn tons for this year. (Investor Daily)

 

Oil Prices Hold Steady Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting

Oil prices remain stable as markets anticipate the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, which will decide future supply policies. Brent crude traded below US$65 per barrel following a calm session due to UK and US holidays, while WTI hovered above US$61. The market is watching closely amid easing trade tensions between the US and EU and potential new sanctions on Russia. OPEC+ is expected to determine July production levels soon, with discussions already underway. (Bisnis)

 

CORPORATE

HMSP to Distribute Rp6.5tr Dividend for FY24 HMSP will distribute a cash dividend of Rp56.2 per share (yield: 8.6%) for FY24, totaling Rp6.5tr, as approved in its AGM on May 27. The dividend will be paid on June 26, 2025, with the recording date set for June 12, 2025. (Kontan)   MYOR Collaborates with U.S. Affiliate to Expand Export Market MYOR has partnered with its U.S. based affiliate, Mayora USA, INC, to trial product sales in the U.S. market, aiming to expand market share and strengthen brand presence amid global uncertainty. The transaction, valued at US$59,343.57 (Rp974.5mn), represents 0.002% of MYOR’s 2025 revenue target. (Kontan)   TLKM to Distribute Rp21tr Dividend for FY24 TLKM will pay a dividend of Rp212.5 per share totaling around Rp21tr for FY24, representing an 89% dividend payout ratio and implying a 7.5% yield. Cum date is yet to be announced. (Kontan)