FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Aneka Tambang: Upgrading FY25-27F earnings on solid gold margin (ANTM.IJ Rp 2,680; BUY TP Rp 3,000)

• 1Q25 result was well above estimates due to strong ore sales and sustained high gold sales vol.
• BRANKAS gold app provides a slight discount of c.Rp57.9k/gr compared to physical gold price, though it charges minting and membership fees.
• Maintain a Buy rating with an upgraded TP of Rp3,000. Key risks include lower commodity prices, lower utilization, and project delays.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

GOTO (Buy, TP: Rp110) Announce Share Buyback Plan

2024 Buyback (Ongoing)

• Amount: US$200mn (~Rp3.2tr)
• Period: June 12, 2024 – June 11, 2025
• Executed: Rp1.8tr (27.8bn shares repurchased)⁠⁠
• Remaining Allocation: Rp1.4tr still available⁠
• Shares to be transferred for MESOP purposes. Transfer can occur up to 3 years post-buyback period.⁠

 

2025 Buyback (Planned)

• Amount: US$200mn (Rp3.3tr)
• Period: June 19, 2025 – June 18, 2026
• Status: Pending GMS approval on June 18, 2025 (IDX). (Kafi Ananta - BRIDS)

ITMG (Buy, TP: Rp27,300) - 1Q25: Below Consensus, In Line with Ours

• ITMG recorded 1Q25 rev. of US$483mn, -26% qoq, -1.4% yoy, reaching 22%/22% of our/cons estimate. The result was below estimate due to weaker qoq sales and ASP of -15%/-13%.
• After recording a lower COGS and opex of -19%/-13% qoq, ITMG's cash cost was flattish at US$67/ton, -2% qoq, and brought its EBIT down to US$81mn, -49% qoq.
• Net profits declined to US$65mn, -36% qoq and +6% yoy, reaching 26%/22% of our/cons estimate. (Timothy Wijaya – BRIDS)

Poultry (Overweight) – 1st Week of May 2025 Price Update

• Approaching the Vesak festive, livebird prices trended higher, reaching Rp18.2k/kg, bringing the average livebird price in the early week of May25 to Rp17.4k/kg, an increase of 9% wow.
• DOC prices remained stable at approximately Rp4.7k/chick.
• Post-harvest season, the local corn price slightly increased to Rp5.2k/kg recently, while the average price in the first week of May25 was Rp5.1k/kg, remaining flat wow.
• SBM prices held below US$300/t, with the May25 average at US$288, down 1% mom and 22% yoy.
• Aside from the sharp increase in LB prices, overall market conditions in early May25 remained steady on a wow basis. Corn prices recorded only a slight uptick, while SBM held relatively steady. We should see livebird prices trend higher this week, supported by the voluntary culling mandate. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

China’s Export Rose 8.1% yoy in Apr25

China’s exports rose 8.1% yy in Apr25, driven by strong gains in India, Southeast Asia, and the EU, which offset a 21% drop in shipments to the US. Imports slipped 0.2% yoy for the second month, resulting in a US$96bn trade surplus. (Bloomberg).

 

Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Rose to 121.7 in Apr25

Indonesia’s consumer confidence rose to 121.7 in Apr25, rebounding from March’s five-month low of 121.1 and ending a four-month decline. Gains were led by stronger perceptions of current economic conditions, income levels, and job availability compared to six months ago. However, outlook-related sub-indices, including overall job availability and the economic outlook, weakened slightly. (Bank Indonesia)

 

US Inflation Rose 0.2% mom in Apr25

US inflation cooled in April, with both headline and core CPI rising 0.2% mm, below expectations, and annual rates at 2.3% and 2.8% respectively—the slowest since early 2021. Shelter remained the main driver of monthly gains, while medical care, car insurance, and furnishings also contributed. Signs of tariff-related price pressures emerged, including an 8.8% surge in audio equipment prices. (Bloomberg)

 

US and China Agreed to a 90-day Tariff Rollback

The US and China agreed to a 90-day tariff rollback, with Beijing cutting tariffs to 10% and Washington to 30%, while core Trump-era tariffs remain. Treasury Secretary Bessent emphasized no decoupling, though markets remain cautious given past deal failures. (Bloomberg)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update May 13, 2025

Government Prepares Regulation to Accelerate Free Nutritious Meal Program

The Indonesian government is drafting a regulation to accelerate the Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) program for 82.9 million beneficiaries, ensuring clear roles for local governments and ministries. Despite a few food poisoning cases affecting a small portion of the current 3.4 million recipients, the government targets safer implementation. The program is expected to cost Rp1-2tr monthly. (Kompas)

 

CORPORATE

Honda Launches CR-V TrailSport Hybrid in the US

Honda has introduced the CR-V TrailSport, a rugged new variant of its popular SUV in the United States, featuring a bold design and advanced hybrid (e:HEV) system for better power, responsiveness, and efficiency. Available this spring, it joins the CR-V lineup, where hybrid models now account for over 50% of sales. The CR-V TrailSport stands out with 18-inch aggressive wheels, all-terrain tires, and an exclusive Ash Green Metallic color, reinforcing its off-road appeal. (Kontan)

 

SIDO Targets Strong Export Growth Amid Global Challenges

SIDO is optimistic about export growth this year, with exports contributing 12% of total sales in 1Q25. The company focuses on expanding sales in existing markets and exploring new ones. SIDO also plans to introduce more product varieties to boost export sales. The impact of trade wars on raw material supply has been minimal, with stable supplies from China and other countries. (Kontan)

 

TLKM Subsidiary TelkomMetra Drives AI-Powered Digital Transformation

TLKM’s strategic investment arm, TelkomMetra, is accelerating national digital transformation through its subsidiaries Infomedia and MDMedia. Infomedia leverages AI for recruitment, online proctoring, and administrative automation using RPA and Document AI. Meanwhile, MDMedia introduces AdXelerate, Indonesia’s first programmatic advertising platform powered by telecom data from over 160mn Telkomsel users, delivering impactful digital solutions for businesses, government, and society. (InvestorDaily)