FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

RESEARCH COMMENTARY

EXCL (Buy, TP: Rp2,800) – 1Q25 Earnings miss from soft data revenue growth

• EXCL reported a 1Q25 net profit of Rp385bn (-23.4% qoq, -28.7% yoy), below our/cons expectation, forming 20.6%/17.4% of FY25F.
• The weak 1Q25 earnings showed the impact of soft revenue growth (+1.9% yoy/ -4.8% qoq; accounting for 23.2% both of our/ cons. FY25F). Mgmt indicated that excluding First Media, revenue would have been -5% yoy). Data revenue grew +0.8%/ -3.8% qoq due to weaker consumer spending and lower seasonal mobility.
• 1Q25 blended ARPU fell -9.1% yoy/ -2.4% qoq to Rp40k, though subscriber base was maintained at 58.8mn (flat qoq, +2.1% yoy). Traffic grew 9.2% yoy/ 4.6% qoq, with data yield falling 8% yoy/ 8% qoq.
• 1Q25 EBITDA margin came in at 50.2%, down by 60bps qoq, better than our expectation of 48.5% but in line with consensus. 1Q25 opex rose 7% yoy due mainly to higher fiber lease and First Media costs.

Cost synergies expectation intact

• Following the merger, EXCL is focusing on unlocking cost and network synergies, with management guiding for annual pre-tax savings of US$300–400mn, including an estimated US$100mn expected to be realized in FY25.
• The company aims to retain all spectrum licenses through end-FY26, as there is no overlap with Smartfren, though the high-cost 900 MHz band is expected to be returned by Dec26.
• On the network side, 15–20% of the combined ~68,000 towers are overlapping, with plans to decommission or redeploy them in areas with stronger competitive and profitability potential.
• Mgmt has not provided FY25 guidance as it remains focused on completing the merger. Nonetheless, it expects to grow ARPU by acquiring high-quality subscribers. It expects capex to rise this year, driven by network consolidation. (Erindra Krisnawan & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

MAIN (Buy, TP: Rp1,500) Concall KTA

• Livebird prices declined post-Lebaran due to seasonality, prompting the government to issue a voluntary culling mandate and instruct feedmillers to absorb livebirds from independent farmers at a minimum price of Rp17k and distribute them to slaughterhouses.
• The livebird absorption is expected to lift market prices in the long run, though feedmillers are expected to incur direct losses in the short term.
• The company remains believed in better supply demand in 2H25 from lower GPS import quota in 2024 unless demand stays exceptionally low. This year GPS import quota rose by less than 10% YoY, impacting supply in 2026.
• DOC prices had previously dropped below Rp4k but have recently rebounded to above Rp4k—still below the BEP of Rp6k.
• Livebird BEP is around Rp17-18k, with current DOC prices, meaning producers are still operating at a loss.
• No adjustments were made to feed ASP in 1Q25. Feed margin was supported by lower raw material costs, a higher portion of local content (70-80%), and increased volume from the expansion of layer feed.
• The company has bought back around 10 million shares at prices around Rp750.
• No significant impact from the AI issue as Indonesia biosecurity remained secured.
• The dividend payout decision will be announced at the AGM on May 22, 2025; historically, MAIN has maintained a payout ratio of 20–30%. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

 

MIDI (Buy, TP: Rp540) – Key Takeaways from MIDI’s 1Q25 Earnings Call

• MIDI reported 1Q25 revenue growth of 15.3% yoy, led by Non-Food (+19.7% yoy) and Fresh Food (+45% yoy). Strong contribution from the Non-Food category helped maintain a 1Q25 gross profit margin (GPM) at 26.3%. Festive sales, including store expansion, rose 14.3% yoy (vs. 9.5% last year); excluding expansion, growth was 6.1% (vs. 6.6%).
• MIDI posted 1Q25 SSSG of 12.5% (vs. 13.7% in 1Q24), driven by a 1% ASP increase, with the rest from volume—supported by a 2% rise in traffic and the remaining from basket size growth, both on quarterly and yearly basis. Basket size during the festive period increased by Rp2mn/day/store, with a slight   ̴50bps decline. Mgmt. expects 2Q SSSG to be in the low single-digits due to post-festive seasonality.
• The company recorded an additional net of 23 new stores in 1Q25, bringing the total to 2,832, with 52.4% of Alfamidi store located outside Java. Alfamidi also entered 2 new cities, expanding its presence to 23 out of 38 provinces in Indonesia.
• The mgmt expects opex-to-revenue to decline in 2Q25 following the shift of Lawson to the parent entity. Opex at the parent level is at 20–21% (vs. 22–23% consolidated). Mgmt also reiterates the expected completion of the Lawson transfer in mid-May, hence it will only book losses from Lawson for 4.5 months in FY25.
• MIDI maintains its FY25 guidance of mid-single-digit SSSG, high single-digit revenue growth, and capex of Rp1.5tr. Post-divestment, management expects NP to exceed the 5-year CAGR (+28.5% yoy).

 

MARKET NEWS

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update May 6, 2025

Import Regulation Revision Completed

The revision of Permendag No. 8/2024 on import policy, following President's directive, has been finalized and is set to be signed by the Trade Minister on Wednesday (May 7). The update includes relaxed technical requirements and adjustments to service level agreements. President had earlier urged its revocation if deemed harmful to national interests. (Kontan)

 

Zero ODOL Policy Set for Implementation in 2026

The Coordinating Ministry for Infrastructure and Regional Development held a cross-ministerial meeting to address the issue of Over Dimension Overload (ODOL) vehicles. Following the meeting, The Minister announced that the zero ODOL policy is planned to be implemented starting in 2026, emphasizing the need for thorough and inclusive coordination. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

ANTM Seeks KBLI Expansion to Support Gold Jewelry Business

ANTM plans to expand its business classification (KBLI) to enable the production and sale of gold jewelry, custom products, and other precious metal-based items, including laboratory ware. This initiative aligns with the company’s long-term strategy to strengthen its gold sales function and enter new market segments. Shareholder approval for the KBLI update will be sought at the annual general meeting on June 12, 2025. (Investor Daily)

 

ASII-Toyota Seal US$120mn Deal to Boost Used Car Business

ASII has strengthened its strategic partnership with Toyota Motor Asia through a US$120mn (Rp2tr) transaction, giving Toyota a 40% stake in PT Astra Digital Mobil (ADMO), while ASII retains 60% control. ADMO, which owns OLX.co.id and OLXmobbi, aims to modernize Indonesia’s fragmented used car market by combining Astra’s ecosystem and Toyota’s global reach. (Emiten News)

 

Erablue Targets 500 Stores by 2027

Erablue, a joint venture by Erajaya Digital and Mobile World Group, has opened 99 stores in two years and is set to launch its 100th outlet in West Bandung on May 9. Focusing on underserved suburban areas in Java, it aims for 150 outlets by 2025 and aggressively targets 500 stores by 2027. (Kontan)

 

INET to Conduct Rights Issue

INET has announced a plan to conduct a rights issue, offering up to 12.8bn new shares, equivalent to 57.1% of post-issue capital. The proceeds will support potential investments in FTTH and a submarine cable project connecting Jakarta, Batam, and Singapore. The rights issue is subject to shareholder approval at an Extraordinary General Meeting scheduled for June 12, 2025, with execution expected within 12 months following regulatory clearance. (IDX)

 

Polytron Enters EV Market with G3 and G3+, Targets 1,500 Units by 2025

Polytron officially launched its first electric vehicles, the G3 and G3+, on 6 May, marking its entry into Indonesia’s automotive market. Aiming to sell 1,500 units by year-end, the company emphasizes quality over low pricing, leveraging its 50-year brand reputation. The locally assembled EVs offer up to 402 km range, fast charging, and start at Rp299mn (battery rental). Deliveries begin in July 2025 with 40% local content. (Kontan)

 

WIFI Discloses Rp978bn BNI Loan

WIFI through its subsidiary PT Integrasi Jaringan Ekosistem (IJE), has disclosed a Rp978bn loan facility from BNI, categorized as a material transaction. The loan is divided into three tranches: Tranche A up to Rp170.7bn for refinancing Shinhan Bank debt, Tranche B up to Rp89bn for purchasing Passenger Information Display (PID) systems, and Tranche C up to Rp700bn for expanding FTTH networks across Jabodetabek, Sukabumi, and Bandung. (IDX)

 

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