FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Merdeka Battery Materials: Earnings Acceleration on Stronger Monetization and Downstream Execution (MBMA.IJ Rp770; BUY TP Rp940) ·         RKAB approval remains pending, though mgmt. expects downstream ore needs of ~23mn wmt to be secured. ·         We lift FY26F-27F net profit by 135-47%, driven by higher HGNM volume and stronger nickel price assumptions. ·         We maintain Buy with a higher TP of Rp940, supported by stronger FY26F-27F earnings trajectory and expanding EBITDA earnings.  To see the full version of this report, please click here     To see the full version of this snapshoot, please click here   MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Eurozone Inflation Rebounded to 1.9% in Feb26 Eurozone inflation rebounded to 1.9% in February 2026, snapping a downward trend after hitting a 16-month low in January. This preliminary estimate exceeded market forecasts of 1.7%, driven largely by accelerating service sector prices, which jumped to 3.4%. While energy costs continued to decline, the pace of those drops slowed significantly. Core inflation also edged higher to 2.4%. Among major economies, France and Italy saw notable price accelerations, whereas Germany provided a slight silver lining with a marginal easing to 2.0%. (Eurostat)   US 10-Year Yield Rises to 4.1% on Inflation Concerns US Treasury yields advanced amid mounting inflation concerns, with the 10-year yield rising to about 4.1%, its highest since mid-February. Escalating tensions involving Iran and surging energy prices reduced expectations for a July rate cut, pushing market bets to September, though 25bps cuts remain priced in for 2026. New York Fed President John Williams cited stabilizing labor market conditions and projected 2.5% growth this year. While tariffs may have largely one-off effects, inflation progress has stalled, and further easing will depend on clearer disinflation signals. (Trading Economics, Bloomberg)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Mar 03, 2026

 

 

Indonesian Govt. Disburses Rp220bn Eid Bonus for Ojol Drivers and Expands Pre-Holiday Assistance

The government will distribute Rp220bn in Holiday Allowance (BHR/THR) to 850,000 online motorcycle taxi drivers ahead of Eid 2026, with major contributions from GoTo and Grab. The bonus, to be paid between H-14 and H-7 before Idul Fitri, will mainly benefit drivers through Grab and Gojek, each covering around 400,000 partners. In addition, the government allocated Rp911.16bn for transportation discounts and Rp14.9tr in food aid for 35.04 million families to support spending during the festive season. (Kontan)

 

Indonesian Nickel Miners Association Confirms Three Smelters Scale Back After RKAB Cut

The government’s nickel production cap of 260–270mn tons has pressured domestic smelters, with the Asosiasi Penambang Nikel Indonesia confirming shutdowns and reduced operations at PT Huadi Nickel Alloy Indonesia, PT Wanxiang Nickel Indonesia, and PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry. Limited imports from the Philippines leave an estimated 90mn tons ore shortfall against this year’s smelter demand of up to 400mn tons. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

MTEL Partners with AALTO to Develop HAPS-Based Stratospace Connectivity

MTEL signed an extended MoU with AALTO HAPS Limited to develop Stratospace and High-Altitude Platform System (HAPS)-based connectivity in Indonesia through October 2027. Under the partnership, AALTO will provide and operate HAPS connectivity solutions, while Mitratel will support tower infrastructure services. (Kontan)

 

TPIA Secures US$200mn Backing from Danantara and INA for CA-EDC Project

TPIA secured US$200mn in initial funding from Danantara Indonesia and Indonesia Investment Authority for the USD800mn CA-EDC plant in Cilegon, targeted to start operations in 2027. The National Strategic Project will produce 400,000 tons of caustic soda and 500,000 tons of EDC annually to reduce import reliance and strengthen downstream industries. (Emiten News)

 

UNVR Finalizes Rp1.5tr Sale of SariWangi Business

UNVR has completed the Rp1.5tr divestment of its SariWangi tea business to PT Savoria Kreasi Rasa, marking the end of its ownership of the brand. The transaction, equal to about 45% of UNVR’s equity as of September 2025, supports the company’s strategy to streamline its portfolio and focus on core growth segments. (Emiten News)