FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Kalbe Farma: Sustainable Moat Underpins Steady Earnings Growth; Resuming Coverage with Buy rating (KLBF.IJ Rp 1,595; BUY TP Rp 1,780)

  • 1Q25 strong earnings were driven by cost-efficiency; we expect 2Q25 revenue to normalize post-Eid yet still on-track to meet FY25F guidance.
  • KLBF’s strength remains its strong distribution network, while rising RMB exposure and peaking JKN coverage should offer margin support.
  • Resuming coverage with a Buy rating but with a slightly lower TP of Rp1,780 on an attractive 3-year earnings CAGR of 11%.

To see the full version of this report, please click here

 

To see the full version of this snapshoot, please click here

 

RESEARCH COMMENTARY

INTP (TP Under Review) - May25 Sales Volume Drop Amid Market Weakness

  • INTP May25: 1.5 Mt (-3.9%yoy/38.9%mom)
  • INTP 5M25: 6.6 Mt (-2.0%yoy)
  • Domestic Market May25: 5.2 Mt (-4.6%yoy/32.3%mom)
  • Domestic Market 5M25: 22.2 Mt (-2.1%yoy)

Comment:

  • INTP's -3.9%yoy sales volume in May25, relatively in-line with domestic market decline of -4.6%yoy, which is driven by declining Bag/Bulk Market at -4.1%/-5.8%yoy. INTP's Bag products outperformed the market at -1.3%yoy, yet Bulk lagging at -10.2%yoy.
  • INTP's 5M25 cumulative volume still at a 2.0%yoy contraction, closely tracking the domestic market's -2.1%yoy growth.
  • 5M25 INTP market share relatively maintained at 29.6% (vs 5M24: 29.6%, 4M25: 29.7%)
  • expects weak demand trend to persist into the next quarter, expecting for additional initiatives to support infra growth by 2H25. (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh & Sabela Nur Amalina – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Bank Indonesia Expected to Hold Rate at 5.50%

Bank Indonesia is set to announce the BI Rate today at around 2:30 PM. We expect BI to hold the rate steady at 5.50%, following last month’s rate cut, while likely shifting focus to non-policy rate expansionary measures to support growth. (BRIDS Economic Research)

 

Indonesia’s Fiscal Deficit Reached Rp21tr as of May25

Indonesia’s fiscal deficit reached Rp21tr (0.09% of GDP) as of May25, with revenue at Rp995.3tr (down 11.4% yoy), achieving just 33.1% of the full-year target—below last year’s 40.1% for the same period. Spending also fell 11.3% yoy to Rp1,016.3tr, or 28.1% of the annual target (vs. 34.4% in 2023). Despite the deficit, the primary balance remained in surplus at Rp192.1tr, indicating that roughly 21% of spending went toward interest payments. (MoF)

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update June 17, 2025

18 Juni (1).png

Consumer: MBDK Excise Cancelled for 2025, Government Seeks Alternatives

The Indonesian government has officially canceled the implementation of excise on sweetened beverages (MBDK) for 2025, despite its inclusion in the state budget (APBN). The decision was confirmed by the Director General of Customs and Excise, who stated that the policy is postponed indefinitely, though may be reconsidered in the future. With a target of Rp3.8tr in excise revenue previously set, the government will seek to offset the shortfall through other revenue streams under the customs sector. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

ACES Approves A Cash Dividend of Rp579.87bn for FY2024

ACES approved a cash dividend of Rp579.87bn or Rp33.87 per share (yield: 6.3%), equivalent to 65% of 2024 earnings). This marks the company’s largest dividend to date. The dividend will be paid on July 17, 2025. Management highlighted it as a reflection of shareholder trust and the success of key strategies, including store expansion and the launch of AZKO. (Emiten News)

 

BUMI Shareholders Approve Quasi-Reorg, Chengdong Cuts Stake

BUMI shareholders approved a quasi-reorganization to eliminate accumulated losses using share premium, with the impact to be reflected in 2Q25 financials. Meanwhile, Chengdong Investment sold 2.53 billion BUMI shares between December 2024 and June 2025, reducing its stake from 39.65 billion to 37.12 billion shares. (Bisnis)

 

GOTO Completes Rp2.09tr Share Buyback

GOTO has completed its share buyback program with a total realization of Rp2.09tr, accumulating 32.18bn Series A shares, which are now recorded as treasury shares. The buyback was mandated by the AGMS on June 11, 2024, where shareholders approved a maximum buyback of up to Rp3.2tr. (Bisnis)

 

MEDC Starts Solar Plant Operations in Bali

MEDC, via Medco Power Indonesia, has launched a 25MWp solar plant in East Bali in partnership with Solar Philippines. Under a 20-year deal with PLN, the plant will supply clean energy to 42,000 homes and cut over 800,000 tons of CO₂ emissions. The project supports MedcoEnergi’s push for low-carbon energy and sustainable development. (Emiten News)

 

WIFI Issues Rp2.5tr Bonds and Sukuk Ijarah

WIFI, through its subsidiary PT Integrasi Jaringan Ekosistem (IJE), will issue Bonds II and Sukuk Ijarah I Year 2025 with a total offering of up to Rp2.5tr, consisting of Rp1.25tr for each instrument. The debt securities are offered in two series: Series A with a 370-day tenor and coupon range of 9.50%–10.25%, and Series B with a 3-year tenor and coupon range of 10.75%–11.50%. (EmitenNews)