FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK
IDEA OF THE DAY
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Telkom Indonesia: 1Q26 Earnings Missed as ARPU Resilience Offset By Margin Trade-Off; Lowering TP to Rp3,750 (TLKM.IJ Rp 2,950; BUY TP Rp3,750)
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MARKET NEWS |
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MACROECONOMY
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Indonesia’s Inflation Accelerated to 3.08% yoy in May26 Indonesia’s inflation accelerated to 3.08% yoy in May 2026 from 2.42% in April, while core inflation edged up to 2.59% YoY from 2.44%, indicating a modest increase in underlying price pressures. The rise in headline inflation was mainly driven by food prices, with volatile food inflation jumping to 6.24% yoy from 3.37%, led by rice, chicken, chili, shallots, and beef prices. Administered price inflation also increased to 2.07% yoy from 1.53%. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.28% mom, reflecting broader price increases across food, housing, transportation, and services. (Statistics Indonesia)
Indonesia’s Manufacturing PMI Rose to 50.0 in May26 Indonesia’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.0 in May 2026 from 49.1 in April, indicating stable factory activity as domestic demand improved and new orders expanded at the fastest pace since February. However, export orders fell at the sharpest rate since August 2021 amid Middle East-related trade disruptions, while output contracted for a third straight month due to raw material shortages and supply constraints. Input cost inflation accelerated to its second-highest level on record, prompting the strongest increase in selling prices since October 2013, while employment and purchasing activity continued to decline. (S&P Global)
Indonesia’s Trade Surplus Narrowed Sharply to US$89.1mn in Apr26 Indonesia’s trade surplus narrowed sharply to USD89.1mn in April 2026 marking the smallest surplus since April 2020, as imports jumped 22.49% YoY to a record USD25.21bn, slightly outpacing exports growth of 21.98% YoY to USD25.30bn. Export gains were driven by non-oil and gas shipments (+23.36%), particularly to the US (+38.72%), China (+29.56%), Japan (+10.03%), and ASEAN (+13.26%). Meanwhile, imports were supported by strong increases in raw materials (+24.56%), consumption goods (+42.90%), and capital goods (+5.64%). The narrower surplus largely reflected a USD3.4bn oil and gas trade deficit. (Statistics Indonesia) |
SECTOR
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Commodity Price Daily Update June 2, 2026 |
Indonesia Raises HBA to US$121.8/t for High-Calorie Coal in Early Jun26
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) raised the Coal Benchmark Price (HBA) across all coal grades for the first half of June 2026. The HBA for 6,322 kcal/kg GAR coal increased to US$121.83/t from US$116.32/t in the second half of May. Meanwhile, 5,300 kcal/kg GAR coal rose to US$84.53/t (vs. US$80.34/t), 4,100 kcal/kg GAR coal increased to US$58.81/t (vs. US$57.61/t), and 3,400 kcal/kg GAR coal climbed to US$40.32/t (vs. US$39.35/t), reflecting broad-based strength in coal benchmark prices. (Kontan)
CORPORATE
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BUMI Provides Rp1.5tr Loan to Arutmin BUMI has provided a Rp1.5tr loan to its subsidiary, PT Arutmin Indonesia, to support the latter’s working capital and day-to-day operational expenses. The loan is funded from proceeds of BUMI’s PUB I Phase V bond issuance, under which the company secured a Rp1.6tr facility split into Tranche A (Rp640bn) and Tranche B (Rp960bn). (Kontan)
INCO Approves US$45.6mn Dividend with 60% Payout Ratio INCO shareholders approved a total cash dividend of US$45.64mn, representing a 60% payout ratio of FY25 net profit. The dividend will be distributed to shareholders recorded on 12 June 2026, with payment scheduled for 26 June 2026. (Kontan) |
