FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

BRIDS FIRST TAKE

• Ciputra Development: 1H25 Marketing Sales: In-Line with Our Estimates and Company's Target (CTRA.IJ Rp 980; BUY TP Rp 1,600)

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

GOTO (Buy, TP Rp110) – KTA from group meeting with management

FY25 Guidance

• Management reaffirmed FY25 Adj. EBITDA guidance of Rp1.4-1.6tr, with segment contributions of Rp300bn from Fintech and Rp1.1tr from ODS.
• GTF loan book is expected to grow from Rp5.7tr in 1Q25 to Rp8tr by end-FY25.

Strategic Initiatives

• GOTO continues to improve cost efficiency through data-driven incentive optimization, while expanding premium services that offer incremental monetization with limited additional cost.
• Special delivery fleet initiative enhances delivery productivity by improving order density and lowering cost per transaction, while the rising adoption of subscriptions supports user retention.

GTF Loan Expansion & Asset Quality

• Loan growth remains on track, underpinned by low market penetration and strong proprietary distribution channels.
• Asset quality is stable, with a 92% on-time repayment rate, supported by robust internal data used for underwriting and risk scoring.

Gov’t Plan to Raise Ride-Hailing Tariffs

• The proposed 8-15% increase in ride-hailing tariffs is still under government review. Management does not expect any material near-term impact.
• Take rate remains at 20%, with no adjustment expected despite external pressures.

2Q25 Outlook

Despite softer macro conditions and rising competition, GOTO expects 2Q25 profitability to remain resilient, supported by continued growth in high-margin premium services such as Food Express and GoCar Prioritas. (Kafi & Erindra – BRIDS)

 

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesia Hit with 19% Tariff by Trump US President Donald Trump announced that Indonesian goods will face a 19% tariff, while US exports to Indonesia will remain untaxed. Indonesia has committed to purchasing US$15bn in US energy, US$4.5bn in agricultural products, and 50 Boeing jets. (Bloomberg)   US Inflation Rose to 2.7% yoy in Jun25 US inflation rose to 2.7% yoy in June from 2.4%, with monthly CPI up 0.3%—the biggest gain since January—driven by food and energy. Core inflation climbed to 2.9% yoy and 0.2% mom, slightly below expectations. Tariff-related cost pressures surfaced in goods like furnishings and toys, but the data is unlikely to accelerate Fed rate cuts, with markets still eyeing September. (Bloomberg)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update July 15, 2025

CORPORATE

ADHI Advances Deepest MRT Tunnel Project in Indonesia

ADHI is progressing on MRT Jakarta Phase 2A (CP202), now tunneling from Harmoni to Mangga Besar at depths up to 27 meters, the deepest in Indonesia. In a joint venture with Shimizu, ADHI is building three underground stations and two tunnels using EPB-type Tunnel Boring Machines. Excavation began in May 2025 and will continue through mid-2026. The project also includes Indonesia’s first four-level underground MRT station. (Bisnis)

 

GOTO Injects Rp507bn into Gopay After Fund Reallocation

GOTO has revised the allocation of its IPO proceeds, redirecting around Rp403bn originally set for Velox Digital Singapore to GOTO (Rp300bn) and Gopay (Rp103bn). Additionally, it reallocated Rp404bn—initially intended for GoViet Technology Trading—to Gopay. In total, Gopay has received a capital injection of approximately Rp507bn. (Tempo)