FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Kalbe Farma: 3Q25: In-line; Broad-based Revenue Recovery Offsets Margin Pressure; FY25F Outlook Intact (KLBF.IJ Rp1,275; BUY TP Rp1,710)

• Broad-based 3Q25 revenue rebound managed to offset margin drag due to higher BPJS pharma, non-dairy mix, and elevated selling expenses.
• We believe the risks of weak nutritionals revenue and higher BPJS pharma mix are contained, given stronger core profit outlook vs. peers.
• We reiterate our Buy rating with an unchanged DCF-based TP of Rp1,710, KLBF still trades at 35/29% below its 10/5-Yr. historical mean P/E.

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Medikaloka Hermina: Solid 3Q25 Earnings Recovery; Controlled Costs from ERP Implementation to Support FY26F Margin (HEAL.IJ Rp1,500; BUY TP Rp1,950)

• 9M25 PATMI beat our estimates (83% of FY25F) supported by more working days boosting IP admissions and controlled salary costs.
• We raised our: 1) FY25F revenue to +5% yoy (from +3%), 2) FY26F PATMI by +9%, as full ERP rollout to potentially contain salary cost growth.
• We maintain Buy rating with a slightly higher DCF-based TP of Rp1,950 (prev. Rp1,850); the LT margin expansion story remains intact.

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Macro Strategy: Beyond The Pivot

• BI may still ease into 2026, but narrower spreads, tighter liquidity, and IDR risks mean focus shifts to policy coordination and transmission.
• Our base case expects a slower easing cycle, stable rupiah, rising foreign ownership, and base case 10-yr yields between 5.63–6.05% in 2025–26.
• The extension of cash stimulus and other fiscal measures will directly support private consumption, keeping growth on track above 5%.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

ANTM (Buy, TP: Rp4,100) - a softer 3Q25; 9M25 still in-line with our/ cons. expectation

Headline:

• 3Q25 revenue/ EBITDA/ net profit fell -60/ -46/ -50% qoq; 
• 9M25 revenue/ EBITDA/ net profit still rose +67/ 199/ 171% yoy, forming 74/ 89/ 81% of cons. FY25F

 

3Q25 business segments performance:

• Nickel ore sales volume fell -30% qoq, despite steady ASP at US$55mn wmt
• Gold sales volume fell -69% qoq, reflecting the raw materials supply issue.
• FeNi sales improved +162% from the low in 2Q25, amid steady production (-7% qoq)   

 

Overall, while 9M25 earnings still met expectations, drop in 3Q25 gold sales may drive slight downside for FY25, as supply remains a risk. (Erindra Krisnawan – BRIDS)

BMRI (Buy, TP: Rp5,000) 3Q25 Results (In line) & Concall KTA

3Q25 Insight:

• Rebounded qoq but still pressured by high opex: BMRI booked net profit of Rp13.3tr in 3Q25, up 18% qoq from 2Q25’s low base but down 14% yoy.
• Higher qoq other operating income: The qoq rebound was driven by a 27% increase in other operating income, mainly from an 80% rise in loan-related fees.
• Opex remained high: Opex stayed elevated at Rp17.3tr (+25% yoy), down only 1% qoq from 2Q25’s high base, which included one-offs in Jun25. Management attributed the higher 3Q25 opex to the same one-off factors.
• Lower loan yield: We estimate loan yield at 8.26% in 3Q25, 13bps lower qoq due to the absence of the 2Q25 one-off yield gain (9bps impact) and lower yield amid easing benchmark rates and rising competition.
• Resilient provisions amid high loan growth: Provisions stood at Rp3.2tr (–6% qoq, +22% yoy), bringing CoC down to 0.73% amid 11% yoy loan growth.
• Wholesale-driven loan growth: Loans grew 11% yoy, led by corporate (+15%) and commercial (+14%), while SME, micro & payroll, and consumer loans grew –0.4%, +7%, and +4%, respectively.
• LDR remained above 90%: LDR rose to 93% (from 90% in 2Q25), in line with the bank’s target, as loans grew 4% qoq and TPF 3% qoq. Excluding SAL deposits, TPF would be flat qoq.
• High wholesale write-off: BMRI wrote off Rp1tr in wholesale loans in 3Q25 after several quarters of minimal write-offs, despite steady net NPL formation.

 

9M25 Insight:

• 10% negative bottom line: BMRI posted net profit of Rp37.7tr in 9M25 (–10% yoy), achieving 74% of our and 75% of consensus FY25F — in line.
• Lower NIM amid one-off yield: Despite higher consumer loan yield from mortgage recognition adjustment, NIM dropped to 4.89% (from 5.11%) as CoF remained high at 2.43% (+20bps yoy), albeit improving recently.
• CoC remained below target: CoC stood at 0.73%, still below the revised 0.8–1.0% target, supported by lower NPL at 1.19% (–4bps qoq) and strong coverage at 243%. Credit costs were mainly driven by subsidiaries, particularly auto-related.
• Wholesale vs retail NPL different direction: Corporate and commercial NPL improved (–3bps and –28bps qoq), while SME, micro & payroll, and consumer NPL rose (+2bps, +30bps, and +13bps). The bank expects retail momentum to recover in 4Q25.

 

Summary:

• BMRI’s 3Q25 results were Neutral as strong non-interest income and resilient provisioning were offset by persistently high opex. Key 4Q25 watch points: opex management and wholesale asset quality. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

MIKA (Buy, TP: Rp3,200) 9M25 Results: Above Our Estimates, In-Line with Consensus

• MIKA reported Net Profit of Rp377bn in 3Q25 (+15% qoq, +39% yoy, bringing 9M25 achievement to Rp1.0tr (+17% yoy), exceeding our estimates of Rp959bn (+10%yoy). Overall 9M25 formed 81%/80% of our/cons FY25F estimates of Rp1.26tr/Rp1.28tr.
• 3Q25 top-line grew strongly at 10% qoq (vs. our estimates of 5% qoq), with improved Gross/EBITDA margin (+40/+70bps qoq) primarily driven by lower salary costs as % of revenue (-110bps).
• Overall 9M25 results exposes resilient operations of MIKA (efforts to increase intensity) amid challenging industry volume outlook, coupled with steady margin preservation through key operational cost-control. Maintain Buy with our DCF-based TP of Rp3,200. Top Pick in Hospital. (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

Poultry (Overweight) – 4th Week of October 2025 Price Update

• Livebird prices continued to ease, likely reflecting supply adjustments, but remained profitable at Rp20.9k/kg. The weekly average in the fourth week of Oct25 declined 4.1% wow to Rp21.5k/kg.
• DOC prices had no official update, though channel checks suggest levels remained steady at around Rp6.0k/chick.
• Local corn prices edged up slightly to Rp6.77k/kg, bringing the weekly average up 0.2% wow to Rp6.77k/kg.
• SBM prices climbed to around US$290/t in the fourth week of Oct25, with the MTD average at US$276/t (–1% mom, –13% yoy).
• Livebird prices softened further this week but stayed within a healthy range, while feed costs rose modestly on firmer SBM and stable corn prices. Overall profitability should remain solid, supported by firm livebird prices and manageable feed costs. Backed by tight supply and continued government initiatives such as the MBG rollout, we expect livebird prices to hover around Rp21k/kg in the near term. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi– BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

US and China Yields Rise Ahead of Trump–Xi Summit and Fed Decision Both US and China bond yields climbed as market sentiment improved ahead of the Trump–Xi summit and the upcoming Fed decision. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.03%, while China’s 10-year yield advanced to 1.79%, the highest in weeks. Optimism over progress in trade talks, covering export controls, fentanyl, and tariffs, boosted risk appetite. China’s industrial profits surged 21.6% yoy in September, signaling a corporate rebound, while the PBoC maintained liquidity support through continued net injections. (Trading Economics)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update October 27, 2025

CORPORATE

AMMN Declares Force Majeure at West Sumbawa Smelter

AMMN reported a force majeure at its West Sumbawa copper smelter after damage to key units disrupted commissioning. Under ESDM Regulation No. 6/2025, the firm may temporarily export copper concentrate while awaiting official approval. The government granted a six-month export permit with higher taxes to push completion of smelter repairs. (Kontan)

 

DRMA Nears Acquisition of PT Mah Sing Indonesia

DRMA is finalizing the acquisition of PT Mah Sing Indonesia, a 4W plastic component manufacturer. The deal, valued below the material transaction threshold, aims to expand DRMA’s product portfolio, boost revenue, and strengthen its position in Indonesia’s automotive component industry, in line with applicable legal regulations. (Emiten News)

 

INET to Acquire Majority Stake in PADA

INET is set to acquire a majority stake in PT Personel Alih Daya Tbk (PADA) from Koperasi Pegawai Indosat (Kopindosat). The negotiation aims to finalize a sale and purchase agreement involving 1.68 billion shares of PADA, representing 53.57% of the company’s issued and paid-up capital. (Kontan)

 

Toyota Global Output Up 11% in Sep25

Toyota Motor Corp’s global production rose 11% yoy to 918,146 units in Sep25, marking four consecutive months of growth driven by strong U.S. demand. U.S. output surged 29%, while production in Japan and China grew 9% and 16%. Global sales increased 3% to 879,314 units, supported by a 14% rise in the U.S., offsetting declines in China and Japan. In 9M25, Toyota sold 7.8 million vehicles, up 5% yoy, including Lexus. (Kontan)