FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK
IDEA OF THE DAY
Bank Central Asia: 3Q25 Earnings: In Line Earnings Amid Higher CoC on Consumer Weakness and Proactive Provisioning (BBCA.IJ Rp7,875; BUY TP Rp11,200)
- BBCA booked 3Q25 net profit of Rp14.4tr as higher CoC offset robust PPOP. 9M25 NP came in at Rp43.4tr (+6% yoy) inline with ours and cons.
- Management is looking at higher loans, CASA, fee income, and better asset quality in navigating the lower NIM amid low interest rate regime.
- We maintain Buy rating on BBCA with a lower TP of Rp11,200. BBCA remains our top pick in the sector with its robust asset quality.
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Macro Strategy: Flight to Safety
- Rising financial strain, combined with a weakening labor market, has strengthened the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- We note three key signals which, though mixed, suggest that the market has been pricing in for another BI’s rate cut.
- More fiscal drives and stimulus packages are released to further support growth momentum, including the addition of cash assistance program.
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RESEARCH COMMENTARY
Poultry (Overweight) – 3rd Week of October 2025 Price Update
- Livebird prices eased to Rp22.4k/kg but remained at an elevated level. The weekly average for the third week of Oct25 inched down 1% wow to Rp22.8k/kg.
- DOC prices had no official update, though channel checks indicate levels remain stable at around Rp6.0k/chick.
- Local corn prices held steady at Rp6.75k/kg, keeping the weekly average flat wow at Rp6.75k/kg
- SBM prices edged up slightly to ~US$280/t in the third week of Oct25, bringing the MTD average at US$271/t (–3% mom, –15% yoy).
- Following last week’s rebound, livebird prices softened slightly but stayed comfortably above breakeven, continuing to support integrator margins. On the cost side, feed inputs were broadly stable, with firm corn and slightly higher SBM. Overall, we expect margins to remain resilient, with livebird prices likely hovering above Rp21k/kg in the near term, supported by tight supply, stable demand, and the ongoing MBG program. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)
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MARKET NEWS
MACROECONOMY
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China’s Economy Grew 4.8% yoy in 3Q25 China’s economy grew 4.8% yoy in 3Q25, slowing from 5.2% in 2Q and marking its weakest pace in a year as sluggish consumer demand and a prolonged property downturn outweighed strong exports and industrial output. Retail sales rose just 3% yoy in September the slowest in a year—amid softer demand for durable goods, while fixed-asset investment fell 0.5% in the first nine months, the first contraction since 2020. Industrial production, however, rose 6.5%, and unemployment eased slightly to 5.2%. (Bloomberg, CNBC) |
SECTOR
Commodity Price Daily Update October 20, 2025
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CORPORATE
PTBA Records 35.9mn Tons of Coal Production as of Sep25
PTBA posted solid 9M25 results with coal production up 9% to 35.9mn tons and sales rising 8% to 33.7mn tons, 56% of which served the domestic market. Coal transport volume grew 8% to 30.02mn tons, supported by logistics efficiency. Backed by recovering coal prices and ongoing operational improvements, PTBA remains optimistic about sustaining performance through year-end. (Kontan)
SMGR Prepares Rp296.09bn to Repay Bonds Maturing in Nov25
SMGR has allocated Rp296.09bn to fully repay its Sustainable Bonds II Phase I Series A, maturing on November 9, 2025. The amount includes Rp290.85bn in principal and Rp5.24bn in interest, to be transferred to KSEI by November 7. (Emiten News)
WIFI Plans to Add Three New Business Classifications
WIFI plans to add three new Indonesian Standard Industrial Classifications (KBLI), namely Wholesale of Telecommunications Equipment, Wireless Telecommunications Activities, and Leasing and Renting of Machinery, Equipment, and Other Tangible Goods Without Purchase Option. The company will hold an EGMS on November 26, 2025, to seek approval for the new business additions. (IDX)
