FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Macro Strategy: Crossroads and Headwinds

• Hawkish Fed signals, rising Treasury term premia, and geopolitical risks continue to build headwinds and elevate market volatility.
• Leadership transition accompanies BI's policy pause, but external headwinds continue limiting room for policy easing.
• Peak rate policy would reduce uncertainty, but insufficient to guarantee sustained market uptrend.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

MIDI (Buy, TP Rp500) – 1H26 Results: Strong Earnings, Slightly Above Expectations

·         MIDI reported solid 2Q26 results, with rev growing 10.8% yoy (-8.7% qoq) – bringing 1H26 rev to Rp11.2tr (+8.5% yoy), in line with our forecast.

·         Fresh food grew the fastest at 41% yoy in 2Q26, followed by non-food (+10%) and food (+5%). Fresh food now contributes 16% of total revenue.

·         Growth was broad-based across regions in 2Q26, with Jabodetabek (+11.4% yoy), ex-Java (+10.5%) and Java (+10.1%) all delivering double-digit rev growth.

·         Overall margins improved across the board in 1H26, with gross margin (+40bps yoy) and EBIT margin (+60bps yoy) expanding in 1H26, supported by manageable COGS and lower opex-to-sales ratio (21.2%). Consequently, op profit rose 22.4% yoy.

·         1H26 net profit increased 24.4% yoy to Rp486bn, slightly above our & cons est., reaching 54% of FY26F. Net margin also improved 50bps yoy to 4.3%. (Christy Halim & Sabela Amalina – BRIDS)

Poultry (Overweight) – 4th Week of July 2026 Price Update

·         LB prices climbed from Rp20.0k/kg at the start of the week to Rp22.0k/kg by the weekend, lifting the weekly average 6% wow to Rp21.2k/kg and extending their premium above the estimated breakeven level of ~Rp19.2k/kg.

·         Local corn prices edged up to Rp6.50k/kg, bringing the weekly average up 0.4% wow to Rp6.49k/kg.

·         SBM prices rose to US$331/t, lifting the MTD Jul26 average to US$320/t (+4% mom, +20% yoy).

·         The continued rise in LB prices this week reinforces the recovery momentum, with LB prices now comfortably above breakeven. On the cost side, both corn and SBM prices ticked higher, adding some feed cost pressure — though the strong LB price recovery provides sufficient buffer, supporting further margin improvement for integrators. (Victor Stefano & Sofi Wilastita – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

Indonesian Government Officially Accepted Perry Warjiyo’s Resignation as Bank Indonesia Governor

The Indonesian government officially accepted Perry Warjiyo’s resignation as Bank Indonesia Governor, with President Prabowo expressing appreciation for his nearly seven years of leadership. Under the Bank Indonesia Law, Senior Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti will automatically serve as acting governor until a new governor is appointed. The government emphasized that BI’s operations and policy continuity will remain intact, while reaffirming close coordination between the government and BI to maintain monetary and fiscal stability. (Ministry of State Secretariat)

Commodity Price Daily Update July 27, 2026

DMAS Achieves 55% of FY26 Marketing Sales Target in 1H26

DMAS recorded Rp1.15tr in marketing sales during 1H26, achieving 55% of its FY26 target of Rp2.08tr. The performance was primarily driven by industrial land sales, with additional contributions from residential and commercial property sales. (Kontan)

INET Launches NewConnext to Expand Enterprise Digital Solutions

INET has expanded into the enterprise solutions segment with the launch of NewConnext, an integrated digital services brand operated through its subsidiary, PT Data Prima Solusindo. The platform offers network infrastructure, data center, AI-powered automation, and workforce solutions, broadening INET's corporate service offerings. (Kontan)