FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Macro Strategy: Beyond Tariff: Unpacking the Prints

• While risk-reward appears asymmetric, focus shifts to economic impact, sovereign ratings, and policy response as core investment anchors.
• Recent domestic data points to clear moderation, requiring greater fiscal stimulus and supply side monetary support.
• We estimate 1Q25 at slightly below 5% level, on household consumption growth moderation and weaker GFCF.

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BRIDS FIRST TAKE  

• Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia: Mar25 Sales improved; Strong Outer Java Growth Boosts SSSG (ACES.IJ Rp 478; BUY TP Rp 600)

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• Telkom Indonesia: Earnings call KTA: Conservative Positioning Amid Soft Macro & FMC Expansion (TLKM.IJ Rp 2,570; BUY TP Rp 3,900)

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

Poultry (Overweight) – 3rd week of April 2025 Price Update

• Livebird prices continued to slide, falling to Rp13.8k/kg and dragging the weekly average down to Rp14k/kg, a steep 9.7% decline wow as the post-Lebaran softness lingers.
• DOC prices remained resilient, holding steady at ~Rp4.7k/chick.
• Corn prices stayed relatively stable in the Rp5.1–5.2k/kg range, with the weekly average at Rp5.2k/kg.
• SBM prices held below US$300/t, with the Apr25 average at US$293, down 1% mom and 14% yoy.
• LB prices have continued their *post-Lebaran downtrend into the third week of April. The government has recommended a voluntary culling program to manage the oversupply, which, if executed effectively, could help stabilize the market by mid-May, at the earliest.

Until then, both LB and DOC prices are likely to remain under pressure, keeping the near-term outlook challenging for integrators, despite the favorable input costs. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesia’s Trade Surplus Rose to US$4.3bn in Mar25

Indonesia’s trade surplus rose to US$4.3bn in Mar25 (Feb: US$3.1bn), lifting the 1Q25 surplus to US$10.9bn, up US$2.5bn yoy. Exports grew 3.2% yoy (+5.9% mom) to US$21.3bn, driven by a 40.8% yoy surge in palm oil, while coal fell 23.1% yoy on lower prices. Imports rose 5.3% yoy (+0.4% mom) to US$18.9bn, with a 9.1% mom rise in oil & gas offsetting a 1.2% mom drop in non-O&G. Non-O&G surplus widened by US$2.2bn, O&G deficit narrowed US$260mn. Surplus gains came mainly from ASEAN (+US$2.8bn) and the US (+US$720mn). (BPS)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Apr 21, 2025

LG-Led Consortium Cancels EV Battery Project in Indonesia

A South Korean consortium led by LG has cancelled its US$7.7bn EV battery supply chain project in Indonesia due to global industry shifts. The project aimed to build a full ecosystem from raw materials to battery cells in partnership with the Indonesian government and state-owned firms. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

CMRY to Distribute Rp1.19tr Dividend

CMRY will distribute Rp1.19tr in cash dividends, equivalent to Rp150 per share (yield: 3.6%), or 78.33% of its FY24 net profit of Rp1.52tr. Shareholders will be recorded by April 30, 2025, with payment scheduled for May 9, 2025. (Bisnis)

 

GoTo Financial Targets Rp8tr in Digital Loans by End of 2025

GoTo Financial GTF projects its digital lending portfolio to surpass Rp8tr (approx. US$495mn) by the end of 2025, driven by strong growth momentum and a prudent lending approach. The optimistic forecast is bolstered by a successful 2024 performance and the company's strategic partnership with Bank Jago, which facilitated over 70% of total loan disbursements through its platform following the full integration of GTF’s lending products. (Kontan)

 

Mercedes-Benz Sees Stable Growth in Premium Car Market

Mercedes-Benz Indonesia remains optimistic about the premium car market, citing its stable demand from affluent buyers. The company sees no significant impact yet from U.S. import tariff policies, with the Indonesian government still reviewing its response. (Kontan)

 

MYOR Revises Share Buyback Schedule

MYOR has revised its Rp1tr share buyback period to run from March 27 to May 28, 2025, shorter than the initial plan ending June 27. Funded by internal cash, the buyback will cover up to 20% of issued capital. (Bisnis)

 

PGAS and PTBA Partner to Develop Coal-to-SNG Project

PGAS is partnering with PTBA to develop a coal gasification project to produce Synthetic Natural Gas (SNG). The project is planned to utilize PTBA’s low-rank coal reserves in Tanjung Enim, South Sumatra. In 2025, both entities will focus on preparing a feasibility study covering technical, commercial, and business scheme aspects. The study will also include the potential development of SNG production facilities and a distribution pipeline network. (Kontan)