FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Merdeka Battery Materials: In-line 1H26 EBITDA; Stronger Ore Margin Cushion Downstream Pressure Ahead of HPAL Ramp-Up (MBMA.IJ Rp496; BUY TP Rp710)

• MBMA delivered an in-line 1H26 EBITDA on stronger ore margins, while net profit was softer than expected.
• Ore monetization and HPAL ramp-up should drive the next leg of growth, despite continued pressure in downstream margins.
• We maintain Buy but cut our TP to Rp710 as our lower nickel price and higher costs assumptions weigh on FY27F-28F earnings.

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Macro Strategy: The Curve Sets the Tone

• Rising US real yields are tightening global financial conditions, increasing pressure on INDOGB yields, foreign flows and IDR.
• Election proximity raises the Fed’s threshold for action, but inflation and resilient growth still justify for further tightening.
• Higher global rates raise the likelihood for BI to hike rates, leading to more elevated INDOGB yields despite stronger domestic buffers

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

• ARTO (Buy, TP Rp1,900) - Aug26 Results (Bank-only)
• BBRI (Not Rated) - Aug26 Results (Bank-only
• Coal (Overweight) - New Regulation on Affiliated Mining Contractors
• Poultry (Overweight) – 4th Week of September 2026 Price Update

 

MARKET NEWS

SECTOR

Top Foreign Flow – JCI, September 28, 2026

Commodity Price Daily Update September 28, 2026

CORPORATE

UNTR Announces Rp1.47tr Interim Dividend

UNTR will distribute a FY26 interim dividend of Rp430/share (yield: 1.9%), totaling up to Rp1.48tr, with the recording date set for October 8 and payment scheduled for October 26, 2026. The dividend comes despite 1H26 net profit declining 88% yoy to Rp956bn, while the company retained Rp82.6tr in unrestricted earnings. (Bisnis)

 

PTBA Secures Rp6tr Working Capital Facilities

PTBA secured Rp6tr in working capital facilities from BRI and Bank Mandiri, comprising Rp2tr and Rp4tr, respectively, using its DHE SDA deposits as collateral. The facilities are intended to provide additional liquidity and flexibility to support daily operations, with no material adverse impact expected on the company’s operations or financial position. (Bisnis)