FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Medikaloka Hermina: Trimming Our FY25-27F Est. by 7-12%, Favorable LT Prospects Remain Intact (HEAL.IJ Rp 1,265; BUY TP Rp 1,750)

• HEAL’s 1Q25 earnings reflected low seasonality and a tighter BPJS business environment, despite private business starting to gain traction.
• Management maintained its 12-15% yoy revenue guidance, yet we still saw lingering risks coming from a weaker BPJS business.
• We slightly trimmed FY25-27F est., yet maintain Buy with a lower TP of Rp1,750. HEAL’s economies of scale shall sustain LT margin expansion.

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Macro Strategy: Repeats or Rhymes?

• May is often linked to softer sentiment, but macro and policy factors likely outweigh seasonal effects on market performance.
• Focus is now on FOMC meeting, with the Fed expected to hold rates amid tariff uncertainty. markets still expect more cuts than Fed.
• Indonesia’s wider 3M25 fiscal deficit, weak April PMI, and soft consumption and investment likely dragged 1Q25 GDP to 4.92%.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

MSTI (Not Rated) - 1Q25 Earnings Call: Soft Guidance Reflecting High Base and Macro Headwinds

1Q25 Result:

• MSTI reported 1Q25 earnings of Rp115bn (-47% qoq, +10% yoy) and revenue of Rp1.19tr (-37% qoq, +6% yoy), in line with historical seasonality, where the first quarter typically sees softer performance.
• Revenue growth was driven by software which rose 78% yoy to Rp333bn on strong demand for big data and public cloud, while hardware fell 21% yoy to Rp590bn amid weaker SP routing sales, reflecting industry shift toward SaaS and cloud infrastructure.
• New contracts reached Rp1.15tr in 1Q25 (+58% yoy), while the Rp1.6tr backlog is expected to be progressively recognized in 2H25.

Guidance 2025:

• Management guides for 10–15% yoy revenue growth in FY25 (vs 28% in FY24), citing a high base effect and softer macro conditions, with net profit margin remaining steady at 9–10%.
• Dividend payout is maintained at 50–70%.
• The renewal of the Indosat–NVIDIA project remains unconfirmed and is not included in the current revenue guidance.

Poultry (Overweight) – Last Week of April and Early May 2025 Price Update

• Livebird prices continued to increase, currently reaching Rp17.1k/kg, with the last week average rising by 0.8% wow to Rp16.9k/kg. The average price for Apr25 stood at Rp15.5k/kg (-21% mom; -28% yoy).
• DOC prices remained stable at approximately Rp4.7k/chick.
• Local corn prices remained stable at Rp5.1k/kg, with the weekly average price also staying at Rp5.1k/kg from the previous week. The average price for Apr25 was Rp5.2k/kg (-1.2% mom; -1% yoy).
• SBM prices held below US$300/t, with the Apr25 average at US$292, down 1% mom and 14% yoy.
• Aside from higher LB prices, the price trend in the last week of Apr25 remained steady compared to the prior week. However, on a monthly basis, LB prices in Apr25 weakened compared to Mar25, but input costs continue to trend favorably, providing some margin relieves amid the operational losses.

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesia’s GDP Grew 4.87% yoy in 1Q25

Indonesia’s GDP grew 4.87% yoy in 1Q25, broadly matching expectations, but signs of soft domestic demand emerged as household consumption rose just 4.89% yoy despite Ramadan. Investment growth remained sluggish, with GFCF at 2.12% yoy, and government spending contracted 1.38% amid efficiency drives. Net exports surged 20.5% yoy, offsetting weak investment, thanks to palm oil and downstream products. On the production side, agriculture led gains due to better harvests, signaling a cyclical shift as seen in past downturns. Manufacturing rose 4.55% yoy, lifted by coal and oil & gas, but non-oil & gas manufacturing slowed to a 3-year low at 4.31% yoy. (BPS)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update May 5, 2025

CORPORATE

INDY to Distribute US$5.04mn in FY24 Dividends

INDY will distribute US$5.04mn in dividends, or Rp15.92 per share (yield: 1.8%), equal to 50% of its 2024 net profit. Payment is set for 4th Jun25, with a record date of 19 May. The company’s profit fell 91.6% to US$10.08mn amid lower coal export revenues. (Bisnis)

 

INET Invests US$20mn in Subsea Cable Linking Jakarta, Batam, and Singapore

INET, through its subsidiary PT Pusat Fiber Indonesia, is partnering with JMP (a KETR entity) to develop a subsea cable system connecting Jakarta, Batam, and Singapore. Backed by a US$20mn investment under an IRU scheme, the project aims to boost network capacity up to 400 terabytes and is expected to be fully operational by Dec25 or early 2026. (Emiten News)

 

MEDC Plans Tender Offer for Debt Securities Amounting to US$661.03mn

MEDC plans to launch a tender offer for the debt securities issued by its subsidiary, with a total outstanding principal amount of US$661.03mn, equivalent to approximately Rp10.83tr. The tender offer will cover two senior notes issued by the subsidiary, with outstanding principal amounts of US$242.32mn and US$418.71mn, respectively. (Investor Daily)

 

PGAS Secures Additional LNG Supply from Tangguh for Industry and Power

PGAS has received an additional 130,000 m³ of LNG from the Tangguh Field, regasified via the FSRU Lampung for industrial and power sector needs. The ship-to-ship (STS) transfer, managed by subsidiary PT PGN LNG Indonesia, took place from April 25–27, 2025. Since the beginning of the year, FSRU Lampung has handled eight LNG cargoes totaling 742,000 m³, serving as a key supply link to Sumatra and Java. Additionally, LNG Arun received one cargo to support energy needs in North Sumatra. (Kontan)

 

PTBA–PGAS to Develop US$3.2bn Synthetic Gas Project

PTBA and PGAS are collaborating on a US$3.2bn synthetic natural gas (SNG) project as part of their coal downstreaming efforts. PTBA will act as the coal supplier, while the plant’s construction and operation will be managed by a joint venture involving PTBA, PGAS, and a technology partner. (Kontan)