BBNI (Buy, TP: Rp5,100) - Feb25 Bank-Only Results

Feb25 Insight:

·         Steady bottom line: BBNI booked NP of Rp1.7tr in Feb25 (+2% mom, +7% yoy), supported by lower CoC.

·         Still low CoC: CoC declined to 0.7% in Feb25, lower than Feb24’s 1.0% and Jan25’s 0.8%, as provision expenses dropped 12% mom and 19% yoy.

·         NIM dropped on lower EA yield: NIM fell to 3.6% in Feb25 (-30bps mom, -20bps yoy), driven by a lower EA yield despite improved CoF.

·         Other operating income remained robust: BBNI booked Rp1.6tr in other operating income (+5% mom, +12% yoy), supported by gains from the sale of financial assets.

·         Flattish deposits amid lower CoF: Deposits remained flat mom, while loans decreased 1% mom, resulting in a lower LDR of 96% in Feb25 from 97% in Jan25.

2M25 Insight:

·         Higher earnings on lower CoC: BBNI booked NP of Rp3.3tr in 2M25 (+8% yoy), forming 15% of our and 14% of consensus FY25F estimates, i.e., in line.

·         Supported by lower CoC amid flattish PPOP: Both NII and PPOP grew by only 2% yoy. The NP growth was supported by a lower CoC of 0.8% (-29bps yoy).

·         NIM still lower despite higher LDR: Despite a 794bps higher LDR, NIM fell 20bps to 3.8% in 2M25 due to lower EA yield and higher CoF.

·         Loan grew 10% yoy: Loan growth remained high at 10% yoy, while deposits grew only 1% yoy, signaling a tight liquidity.

Summary:

MSTI (Not Rated) - FY24 Inline earnings;solid revenue

FY24 Results

·         Revenue Rp5.36tr, +28%yoy, above cons., driven by strong growth in Data Center & Cloud Infra (+42%yoy).

·         Gross profit Rp964bn, +11%yoy, but GPM compressed to 18% (vs 21% in FY23) due to a higher portion of hardware.

·         Net profit Rp530bn, +18%yoy, in line with consensus 103%, with NPM steady at 11%, due to effective cost control.

4Q24 Results

·         4Q24 revenue came in Rp1.90tr (+18%qoq ,-1%yoy), beating cons., but broadly flat vs 4Q23. MSTI booked the remaining 10–30% contract from NVIDIA project.

·         MSTI seasonally always sees strong seasonality in Q4.  Considering the flattish revenue yoy growth, the 4Q24 growth may have been only one-sided driven so far only by fulfilling NVIDIA's remaining contract.

Comment: 4Q24 was a strong revenue performance by MSTI. The flattish revenue on yoy basis suggests some project delays due to MSTI’s focus on completing its first large-scale NVIDIA GPU implementation, which resulted also to lower margins yoy. (Niko Margaronis & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

Poultry (Overweight)– 3rd Week of March 2025 Price Update

·         Livebird prices held steady at Rp18.8k/kg last week, with the weekly average also at Rp18.8k/kg, marking a decline of 3.2% wow.

·         Day-old chick (DOC) prices remained stable at around Rp4.7k/chick.

·         Local corn prices decreased to Rp5.1k/kg recently, which we believe is due to the harvest season. However, the weekly average price was still elevated at Rp5.3k/kg, flattish wow.

·         Soybean meal (SBM) prices edged up slightly to US$300/t on the last day of the third week of Mar25, but the monthly average for Mar25 remained at US$296 (-1% mom, -12% yoy).

·         In the third week of Mar25, LB prices tended to be weaker compared to the previous week and fell below historical norms. Typically, LB prices increase during the third week of Ramadan versus the 30 days prior, but this year, prices declined by 4.2%. That said, overall costs remained steady, and we still expect solid results for 1Q25 along with higher LB prices this week. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

SMGR (Hold, TP: Rp3,900) – Decent Sales Vol Growth in Feb25

·         Domestic Feb25: 2.21 Mt (-2.2% mom/+2% yoy)

·         Domestic 2M25: 4.47 Mt (-4% yoy)

·         Total Feb25: 3.03 Mt (+3% mom/+5% yoy)

·         Total 2M25: 5.97 Mt (-1.3% yoy)

Comment: Despite the expected decline on domestic vol due to shorter working days, SMGR recorded better Feb25 vol growth (in mom basis) vs INTP and industry, leading to market share gain (48% in Feb25 vs 47% in Jan25). Bag ratio was stable at ~72% in Feb25, similar to Jan25 level. However, on an accumulative basis (2M25), the domestic volume of SMGR was still on contraction (-4% yoy), with slight offset by better export market performance. We have a HOLD rating on SMGR. (Richard Jerry, CFA & Sabela Nur Amalina - BRIDS)

WINS (Buy, TP: Rp610) – FY24: below our estimate

·         4Q net profit declined to US$2.8mn, -56% qoq, whilst FY24 net profit grew strongly to US$22.5mn, +237% yoy, reaching 90%/110% of ours/cons estimate

·         Meanwhile, 4Q revenue slightly dropped to US$20.8mn, -10% qoq, with FY24 revenue rising to US$82mn, +14% yoy, reaching 92%/95% of ours/cons estimate

·         Despite recording lower revenue, its COGS efficiencies were also apparent, leading to a flat GP and opex of US$8mn/6mn. However, due to a -US$470k forex loss and a weaker contribution from JVs of US$300k (vs. US$1.3mn in 3Q24) led to a lower pretax income of US$5.5mn, -27% qoq.

·         Furthermore, we believe the higher contribution of PSV led to a higher minority interest portion of US$2.3mn in 4Q24 vs. US$1.2mn in 3Q24. (Timothy Wijaya – BRIDS)