FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Macro Strategy: Recalibrating for Risk Off

• Worsening Middle East tensions raise market volatility prompting us to adjust yield forecast and flag higher risks.
• Prolonged tensions may keep BI hawkish, as rising yields, rupiah weakness, and inflation risks outweigh growth support.
• Markets now price only one Fed cut in 2026 as rising inflation and softer growth strengthen stagflation concerns

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

Poultry (Overweight) – 1st Week of March 2026 Price Update ·         Livebird prices edged slightly lower to Rp23.1k/kg after briefly rising to Rp23.8k/kg earlier in the week, while the weekly average came in broadly stable at Rp23.5k/kg (–0.2% wow). ·         Local corn prices remained steady at Rp6.38k/kg, with the weekly average unchanged wow at Rp6.38k/kg. ·         SBM prices eased slightly to US$313/t, bringing the Mar26 MTD average to US$310/t (+2% mom; +5% yoy). ·         While LB prices saw mild week-to-week fluctuations, pricing remains relatively firm during Ramadan, with the average price in the third week of fasting still ~5% above the 30-day pre-Ramadan level, indicating supportive demand conditions. Meanwhile, stable corn prices and the slight pullback in SBM should help keep feed cost pressures manageable, keeping integrator margins broadly resilient through the Ramadan–Lebaran window. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

China’s Inflation Rose to 1.3% yoy in Feb26 China’s inflation rose to 1.3% yoy in Feb26 from 0.2% in January, the highest since January 2023 and above expectations, mainly due to Lunar New Year effects that lifted food prices. Food inflation rebounded to 1.7% as vegetable prices increased and pork declines eased, while non-food inflation accelerated to 1.3%, led by clothing, healthcare, and education. Core inflation rose to 1.8% yoy, the strongest since March 2019. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 1.0%, marking the largest gain in a year. (NBSC, CNBC)   Indonesia’s Consumer Confidence Eased to 125.2 in Feb26 ⁠Indonesia’s consumer confidence eased to 125.2 in Feb26 from 127.0 in January, though it remained in optimistic territory. The decline was mainly driven by weaker expectations for the next six months, with the Consumer Expectations Index falling to 134.4 as income and job outlook softened. Meanwhile, the Current Economic Condition Index rose slightly to 115.9, supported by improved views on current income, job availability, and durable goods purchases. Overall, the survey indicates consumer sentiment remains strong but optimism about the near-term outlook has moderated. (Bank Indonesia)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Mar 09, 2026

CORPORATE

AMRT Buys Back 432.67m Shares for Rp812.46bn

AMRT reported the realization of its share buyback program conducted between 8 December 2025 and 6 March 2026, during which the company repurchased 432.67m shares with a total transaction value of Rp812.46bn. The buyback forms part of the program previously announced by the company, with a maximum fund allocation of Rp1.5tr. (Emiten News)

 

BBNI Approves Rp13.03tr Cash Dividend for FY25

BBNI has approved a cash dividend of around Rp13.03tr for FY25, equivalent to Rp349 per share (8.1% yield), during its shareholders meeting. The dividend represents a 65% dividend payout ratio of the bank’s consolidated net profit attributable to the parent entity, which totaled around Rp20.04tr for FY25. (Emiten News)

 

EXCL Expands Eastern Indonesia Network via Palapa Ring Timur

EXCL is optimizing its services in eastern Indonesia through the Palapa Ring Timur project, which covers 35 cities/regencies across East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku, Papua, and West Papua. The project involves around 8,454 km of fiber optic cable with a total project value of Rp5.1tr. Under the initiative, EXCL is expanding through Project 9 of Palapa Ring Timur, covering Waingapu, Sabu, Baa, and Kupang, with a total capacity of 30 Gbps. (Bisnis)

 

HERO Targets Double-Digit Growth During Ramadan 2026

HERO is targeting double-digit sales growth during Ramadan 2026, supported by rising demand for skincare, perfumes, and wellness products such as vitamins and supplements. The company noted that the Ramadan period has consistently been an important sales momentum for Indonesia’s health and beauty retail industry, and management remains confident in achieving double-digit growth this year, in line with last year’s realization. (Bisnis)

 

PGAS Allocates US$353mn Capex for 2026

PGAS has allocated US$353mn in capital expenditure for 2026, representing an increase of around 14% compared with the 2025 allocation. The investment will be focused on strengthening the development of integrated natural gas infrastructure to support national energy resilience. (Kontan)

 

TLKM Subsidiary TelkomMetra Signs CSPA to Divest AdMedika

PT Multimedia Nusantara (TelkomMetra), a subsidiary of TLKM, has signed a Conditional Sale and Purchase Agreement (CSPA) as a key step toward the full divestment of AdMedika, including its subsidiary TelkoMedika, to the Fullerton Health Group. The move aligns with the BUMN streamlining initiative mandated by Danantara and supports Telkom Group’s transformation under the TLKM 30 pillar. (Kontan)

 

TPIA Increases MTBE and Butene-1 Plant Capacity by 25%

TPIA has increased the production capacity of its MTBE and Butene-1 (B1) plant by 25% following the completion of an expansion project carried out with PT Inti Karya Persada Tehnik (IKPT) under an EPC contract signed in Dec24. The plant, located at TPIA’s integrated petrochemical complex in Cilegon, Banten, has been operating since 2020, and the expanded capacity became operational after technical preparations and trial runs in late Feb26. (Kontan)