FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia: FY25 Results: Record Quarterly Earnings Led to All-Time High Earnings (JPFA.IJ Rp2,370; BUY TP Rp3,300)

• JPFA posted 4Q25 net profit of Rp1.6tr, bringing its FY25 to Rp4.0tr (+33% yoy), above ours and consensus (at 105%/114% of FY25F).
• Aside from higher margin in DOC and LB segments due to higher ASP and volume, feed margin expanded qoq on contained cost.
• We maintain our Buy rating with a higher TP of Rp3,300 as we adjusted FY26F EBITDA by 5.3%; potential dividend yield of 7.8%.

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Macro Strategy: Prepare for Repricing

• US- Iran escalation lifts tail risk supports safe havens, pressures risk assets. Stagflation risk is now back on the fore.
• Ratings risk is back: after Moody’s negative outlook, S&P and Fitch reviews loom, with debt service to revenue now under scrutiny.
• The IDR200tn SAL rollover extends to Sep 2026, prolonging excess liquidity, anchoring funding costs but IDR risk remains.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

O&G Update: Geopolitical Escalation – What’s Worth Watching

Recent drone attacks targeting facilities around Ras Tanura, one of Saudi Aramco’s key oil processing and export terminals, have reignited market concerns over the security of critical global energy infrastructure. The escalation adds to ongoing tensions in the region and reinforces upside risks to global oil and gas prices.

 

Ras Tanura – Why It Matters

• Ras Tanura is one of the largest oil export terminals in Saudi Arabia, serving as the primary export outlet for the Kingdom’s crude shipments.
• Any disruption to this facility could:
  • Directly affect Saudi export volumes
  • Tighten near-term global oil supply
  • Increase the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices
  • Given Saudi Arabia’s central role in global oil supply, even temporary disturbances could have outsized implications for market sentiment and price volatility.

 

Strait of Hormuz – Key Supply Risk

• The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic chokepoint (~33 km wide) between Iran, Oman, and the UAE.
  • ~17–20mn barrels per day (~20% of global oil supply) transit through the strait
  • A key export route for Qatar’s LNG
  • Eight Gulf countries rely heavily on this passage for crude exports
  • While a full blockade remains a tail-risk scenario, heightened tensions alone are sufficient to sustain elevated volatility.

 

If a Full Blockade Occurs – Who Is Most Exposed?

• A prolonged disruption would trigger a global supply shock. Countries most exposed include:
  • India: ~85% of oil needs are imported; ~60% sourced from the Middle East
  • China: World’s largest oil importer; ~40% of imports pass via Hormuz
  • Japan: ~75% of oil imports flow through Hormuz
  • Saudi Arabia: ~80–90% of exports use this route
  • UAE: ~72% of exports depend on Hormuz (despite limited pipeline alternatives)
  • A complete closure could drive oil prices sharply higher and tighten LNG markets, thereby amplifying global inflationary pressures.

 

MEDC – Key Beneficiary of Higher Energy Prices

• We reiterate Buy for Medco Energi (MEDC IJ) as it remains one of the most leveraged plays on higher oil prices within our coverage.
• Based on our internal sensitivity analysis:
  • If global oil prices reach US$75/bbl in FY26F,
  • MEDC’s net profit could increase to ~US$355mn,
  • Implied FY26F P/E of ~10.1x,
  • With potential Target Price upside toward Rp2,400.
• We maintain our constructive stance on MEDC as a primary beneficiary of elevated global energy prices. (Andhika Audrey – BRIDS)

Poultry (Overweight) – 4th Week of February 2026 Price Update

• Livebird prices rebounded to Rp23.5k/kg, though the weekly average eased 3% wow to Rp23.3k/kg. On a monthly basis, the Feb26 average remained elevated at Rp23.5k/kg (+21% mom; +20% yoy).
• Local corn prices held steady at Rp6.38k/kg, with the weekly average also at Rp6.38k/kg (–0.6% wow). For Feb26, the monthly average declined 2.4% mom to Rp6.4k/kg.
• SBM prices continued to trend higher to US$315/t, lifting the Feb26 average to US$305/t (+3.6% mom; +2% yoy).
• While the weekly average softened slightly, LB prices remain at relatively firm levels during the Ramadan period, suggesting demand conditions are still supportive. Although SBM prices have continued to edge higher, stable-to-lower corn prices should help partially offset feedcost pressures. Overall, we maintain that margins remain broadly resilient through the Ramadan–Lebaran window amid a relatively balanced supply-demand backdrop. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesia’s Inflation Rose to 4.76% yoy in Feb26

Indonesia’s inflation rose to 4.76% yoy in Feb26, up from 3.55% yoy in Jan26, exceeding Bank Indonesia’s ±2.5% target range. The increase was driven mainly by housing, water, and electricity, as well as personal care and other services, alongside food, beverages, and tobacco. Core inflation remained contained within the target range at 2.68% yoy, slightly higher than 2.45% in the previous month. Administered prices surged to 12.66% yoy from 9.71% yoy, largely due to ongoing electricity tariff normalization, while volatile food inflation rose to 4.64% yoy, driven by higher prices of chicken, rice, shallots, and eggs. (BPS)

 

Indonesia’s Trade Balance Recorded a Surplus of US$0.95bn in Jan26

Indonesia’s trade balance recorded a surplus of US$0.95bn in Jan26, narrowing from US$2.51bn in Dec25, though still marking the 69th consecutive month of surplus. Exports rose to US$22.16bn (+3.39% yoy), driven mainly by non-oil and gas exports (+4.38% yoy), while oil and gas exports contracted by 15.62% yoy. Manufacturing exports led growth at 8.19% yoy, while agriculture and mining declined 20.36% and 14.59% yoy, respectively. Imports increased to US$21.20bn, up 18.21% yoy, supported by strong growth in capital goods (+35.23% yoy), as well as intermediate and consumer goods imports, which rose by 14.67% and 11.81% yoy, respectively. (BPS)

 

⁠Indonesia’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.8 in Feb26

⁠Indonesia’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.8 in Feb26 from 52.6, marking a seventh consecutive month of expansion and the fastest pace since Mar24. The uptick was driven by stronger domestic demand, with new orders and output growing at a faster rate, while export demand rebounded for the first time in six months. Firms continued to hire, and input purchasing increased significantly. However, supply constraints persisted amid shipping delays and flooding. Although input cost inflation eased to a six-month low, business confidence weakened and remained below its long-term average. (S&P Global)⁠

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Mar 02, 2026

CORPORATE

BELI Rolls Out MESOP III & IV for Management and Staff

BELI’s MESOP III Phase IV and MESOP IV Phase II offer 1.5 billion stock options at Rp430 each from March 15 to April 13, 2026, potentially raising Rp647bn. The plan provides long-term incentives for management and employees, while PT Global Investama holds a 76.566% controlling stake. (Emiten News)

 

ISAT Targets Sales of Up to 1 Million for FWA

ISAT has launched Indosat HiFi Air, a FWA-based home broadband service, targeting initial sales of 500,000 to 1 million devices nationwide, offering a 4G variant priced from Rp399,000 bundled with 50GB for 30 days and a 5G-ready variant starting at Rp1.5 million with 75GB for 30 days, as the company expands its footprint in the residential internet segment. (Kontan)

 

RALS Shares to Be Absorbed by Ramayana Makmursentosa

RALS’s main shareholder, Ramayana Makmursentosa, will acquire 203.5 million shares from the company’s buyback off market between March 27 and April 7, 2026. The buyback, approved in an extraordinary shareholders’ meeting on August 24, 2025, and completed on November 24, 2025, had an average price of Rp651.28 per share, requiring about Rp132.54bn, while 27 million shares were previously transferred, generating tactical funds of Rp39.77bn. (Emiten News)