FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Bank Syariah Indonesia: Potential implication of ownership change (BRIS.IJ Rp 2,790; HOLD TP Rp2,900)

• BRIS share price tanked by 7% coinciding with the news that Danantara will take direct control of BRIS, making it a legitimate SOE bank.
• We believe the negative impact from losing synergy with BMRI will be limited and there is possibility of higher free float for BRIS.
• However, we maintain our Hold rating on BRIS on valuation and earnings risk. We maintain our TP at Rp2,900, implying FV PBV of 2.8x.

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Macro Strategy: The Shift in Asset Rotation

• BI’s rate cut has driven SRBI yields lower, and the large volume of maturities in May has supported demand for corporate bond issuances.
• Heading into June, lower yields may increase interest in riskier assets, but sustained inflows rely on proactive government growth stimulus. 
• Tariff saga continues, with both scenarios putting US fiscal at risk from reduced tariff revenue, necessitating calibration of spending plans.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

Poultry (Overweight) – 4th Week of May 2025 Price Update

• In line with our expectations, livebird (LB) prices rebounded to Rp18k/kg at the end of May, with the weekly average for the last week of May25 rising 6.5% wow to Rp16.7k/kg. The monthly average for May25 also stood at Rp16.7k/kg (+6% mom; -20% yoy), though still below breakeven levels for the commercial farming segment.
• DOC prices remained stable at approximately Rp4.7k/chick.
• Local corn prices stayed firm at Rp5.2k/kg, with both the weekly and monthly average for May25 unchanged from mid-May (+0.4% mom; +8.2% yoy).
• SBM prices remained under US$300/t, with the May25 average at US$291—flat mom and down 21% yoy.
• We expect the upward trend in livebird prices—and, in turn, poultry share prices—to continue into June, supported by tighter supply from ongoing culling and higher disposable income stemming from government stimulus, particularly the electricity subsidy (50% discount in June–July for 1,300 VA customers). (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

TOWR (Buy, TP: Rp870) – 1Q25 Results: Earnings inline with 24%/23% of our/consensus estimates

• TOWR reported 1Q25 revenue of Rp3.2tr (-2.4% qoq, +5.3% yoy). Tower rental revenue was largely as expected (-1.6% qoq), while non-tower revenue underperformed with a -4% qoq drop.
• Tenancy ratio slightly dipped from 1.64x in 4Q24 to 1.63x, reflecting a modest net addition of only 10 tenancies against 106 net new towers added. This aligns with broader industry trends and was impacted by IOH tenant relocations.
• EBITDA stood at Rp2.68tr (-2.8% qoq, +5.3% yoy), with margins contracting modestly by 30bps qoq to 83.5%.
• Net profit was Rp803bn (-9.6% qoq, +0.7% yoy) with profit margin declining 200bps qoq to 25%, primarily driven by lower collocation activity.
• We expect IOH tenant relocations to ease in FY25 but anticipate fresh headwinds from decommissioning activities related to the XL-Smartfren merger. (Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesia’s Inflation Eased to 1.60% yoy in May25

Indonesia’s inflation eased to 1.60% yoy in May25, as deflation in the Volatile category (-1.2% yoy; -2.5% mom) offset gains elsewhere. Core inflation rose to 2.4% yoy, mainly driven by gold jewelry and cooking oil, while Administered prices increased 1.4% yoy. Gold jewelry was the top contributor to annual inflation (0.47ppt), surpassing the combined impact of the Food, Beverage, and Tobacco category (0.3ppt). (BPS)

 

Indonesia Recorded A US$0.16bn Trade Surplus in Apr25

Indonesia recorded a US$0.16bn trade surplus in Apr25 —the smallest in five years—driven by an 18.9% yoy surge in raw material imports. Exports rose 5.8% yoy, led by strong gains in manufacturing (13.9%) and agriculture (59.8%), while mining exports fell sharply (-20.7%). Imports jumped 21.8% yoy, with a notable 53.7% rise in shipments from China. (BPS)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update June 2, 2025

Indonesian Gov’t Cancels 50% Electricity Discount Plan for 79.3mn Customers

The Indonesian government has canceled its plan to provide a 50% electricity tariff discount for 79.3mn customers with 1,300 VA or lower capacity. Finance Minister stated the cancellation was due to delayed budgeting mechanisms, making implementation in June–July unfeasible. The discount was initially part of a broader stimulus program by President aimed at supporting 5% economic growth in 2Q25. (CNN)

 

CORPORATE

ADMR Distributes A US$120mn Cash Dividend ADMR will distribute a US$120mn cash dividend, or Rp48 per share (yield: 4.7%), representing 27.48% of its 2024 net profit of US$436.66mn. The remaining US$312.29mn will be retained to support long-term business growth. (Emiten News)   ADRO Distributes Final Dividend of Rp158.9 per Share for FY24 ADRO has set its final dividend for the 2024 fiscal year at US$0.00975 per share or Rp158.9 (yield: 7.5%). This decision was approved during the June 2, 2025, AGMS. The company had previously paid an interim dividend of Rp106.84 per share on January 15, leaving a remaining Rp52.06 per share to be distributed. (Emiten News)   ERAL Secures Under Armour Retail Rights in Indonesia ERAL, via its subsidiary PT Era Gaya Indonesia, signed a deal with UA Sports to operate official Under Armour stores in Indonesia. The partnership strengthens ERAL’s international brand portfolio and is expected to boost long-term business prospects and revenue, though it may require upfront investment for store development. (Emiten News)   GOTO – ISAT Release New Sahabat-AI with Chat Service GOTO and ISAT have unveiled an enhanced Sahabat-AI model featuring 70bn parameters. The updated AI offers a multilingual chat service accessible through sahabat-ai.com and the GoPay app. It operates on locally available infrastructure to ensure data residency and comply with regulations. (Tech In Asia)   INCO Begins Pomalaa Project with Pamapersada INCO signed a mining services agreement with PT Pamapersada Nusantara to commence operations at the Pomalaa nickel project in Southeast Sulawesi. The contract covers land clearing, mining, ore transport, and infrastructure development, supporting INCO’s goal to supply domestic nickel and promote Indonesia’s EV ecosystem through downstream integration. (Emiten News)   KLBF and GE Healthcare Open Indonesia’s First CT Scanner Manufacturing Facility KLBF, through its subsidiary PT Forsta Kalmedic Global, in collaboration with GE Healthcare, has officially launched Indonesia’s first CT scanner manufacturing facility, located in Bogor. In its initial phase, the plant is capable of producing one CT scanner unit per week. According to KLBF, the Rp260bn investment marks Kalbe’s initial entry into the mid- to high-end medical technology sector. (Kontan)   WIFI Signs Strategic Partnership with TLKM WIFI and TLKM along with its subsidiary PT Telkom Infrastruktur Indonesia have signed an MoU to collaborate on network infrastructure and internet ecosystem development, focusing on metro-ethernet, IP Transit, cloud-based services, FTTX technology via Virtual Unbundling Line Access (VULA), and managed services with network optimization and integrated monitoring. (Kontan)