FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Macro Strategy: The Tailwinds and Trade-Off

• Liquidity shows early signs of improvement as SRBI yields fall and IndONIA drops; fiscal disbursement expected to lead recovery further.
• BI is likely to maintain its dovish stance and have time to assess before proceeding with further rate cuts, given current liquidity conditions.
• US tariff shift could shield Indonesia’s exports, but cheap imports threaten domestic market requiring policies intervention.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

INTP (Buy, TP Rp6,200): 1H25 Sales Volume In-Line Despite Weaker Jun25

• INTP booked 1.4mn tons in Jun25 sales (-6% yoy, -8% mom), bringing 1H25 volume to 8.0mn tons (-3% yoy), only slightly below our 8.1mn ton estimate. This reflects a 43% run-rate to our FY25F target of ~18.6mn tons.
• While Jun25 sales were weaker than our flat-to-low-single-digit mom drop expectation, 1H25 performance remain in-line with its average historical 43% FY contribution, driven by seasonal factors, particularly delayed gov’t spending ramp-up.
• National domestic sales volume reached 4.9mn tons in Jun25 (-7% yoy, -6% mom), contributing to national 1H25 volume of 27.2mn tons (-3% yoy). INTP’s volume decline mirrors the market, with market share stable at 29.4% (vs. 1H24).
• 1H25 bag cement sales remained positive at +0.8% yoy, while bulk sales declined -11% yoy due to normalized IKN volume. In Jun25, bag sales in Java fell -5% yoy as INTP chose to preserve ASP while peers began offering promotions at selected areas.
• INTP sees heavy rainfall and soft consumer demand as potential risks to 2H25 volume ramp-up but remains optimistic on better 2H25 performance supported by accelerated government spending.

We view INTP’s stable market share amid industry contraction as a reflection of strong distribution execution. We have trimmed our FY25F/26F net profit forecasts to Rp1.5tr/1.6tr (vs. cons Rp1.9tr/2.0tr) to reflect persistent industry headwinds. (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh & Sabela Amalina – BRIDS)

Poultry (Overweight) – 2nd Week of July 2025 Price Update

• Livebird (LB) prices held firm at Rp18.4k/kg, with the weekly average in the second week of Jul25 unchanged from the prior week.
• The stability in LB prices during the second week of Suro marks an unprecedented shift, as this period has typically seen the lowest LB prices within the Suro month.
• DOC prices remained unchanged at approximately Rp4.7k/chick.
• Local corn prices remained at Rp5.3k/kg, with the weekly average in the second week of Jul25 also at Rp5.3k/kg (+0.6% wow).
• SBM prices dropped to its lowest level YTD at US$266/t, bringing the Jul25 average to US$269/t (–6% mom; –25% yoy).
• In addition to the effect of last year’s decline in imported GPS quota, we believe the current firmness in LB prices reflects successful implementation of the government’s price stabilization mandate. Given this unusual pattern in Suro 2025, we expect LB prices to hover around Rp18k/kg throughout Jul25. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

PWON (Buy, TP Rp640) - 1H25 Marketing Sales: Below Ours (39%) and Company's Target (34%)

• PWON booked Rp273bn in 2Q25 marketing sales (-29% yoy; -18% qoq), bringing 1H25 pre-sales to Rp603bn (-22% yoy). This is below both our FY25F estimate of Rp1.53tr (39% achievement) and the company’s target of Rp1.80tr (34% achievement). 1H25 achievement toward the company’s target is also below the historical average of 43%.
• While take-up rates improved in key condominium projects like Pakuwon Mall Bekasi – Tower Bella and Pakuwon Mall Surabaya – Tower Lancaster, this was offset by a sharp decline in landed house pre-sales, particularly Grand Pakuwon, which posted only Rp89bn in 1H25 vs. Rp247bn in 1H24 (–64% yoy).
• VAT-waived product contribution increased significantly — from 59% in 1Q25 (~Rp194bn) to 95% in 2Q25 (~Rp259bn), bringing total 1H25 VAT-waived pre-sales contribution to 75% (Rp453bn).
• While we expect a slight downgrade in FY25F pre-sales and FY26F property development revenue, the strong VAT-waived contribution in 2Q25 might support revenue recognition in FY25F. Meanwhile, investment property revenue, especially from the space rental segment (35% of total revenue), should remain stable — supported by the Pakuwon Mall Bekasi rental rate ramp-up starting early 2Q25.
• Upcoming Pre-Sales: Soft Launching of Kokas Phase 4 in 3Q25.
• We maintain our Buy rating on PWON with TP of Rp640 based on 58% disc. to RNAV.
• Latest Note on PWON: https://link.brights.id/brids/storage/39312/20250521-PWON.pdf  (Ismail Fakhri Suweleh – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update July 15, 2025

Bulog to Distribute SPHP Rice via KopDes Merah Putih

Perum Bulog confirmed that village cooperatives under the KopDes/Kel Merah Putih program will take part in distributing SPHP rice (Stabilization of Food Supply and Prices). Bulog mgmt. said these cooperatives will serve alongside public markets and regional government outlets. Cooperatives must first submit a request to local Bulog offices before receiving stock. In addition to rice, KopDes Merah Putih will also distribute goods from ID Food, Pertamina, and Pupuk Indonesia, expanding Bulog’s rural reach and accelerating distribution beyond traditional markets. (Bisnis)

 

CORPORATE

AMMN Shares Trimmed by Salim Group Unit

AMMN saw a 160 million share divestment by PT Pesona Sukses Cemerlang, an affiliate of the Salim Group, reducing its ownership from 6.52% to 6.30%. The transaction, equivalent to a 0.22% stake. According to KSEI data as of July 9, 2025, the change reflects a partial exit from the mining firm backed by key business figures. (Emiten News)

 

JSMR Targets Jogja–Solo Toll Segment Completion by 2026

JSMR targets completing the Jogja–Solo toll road’s Prambanan–Purwomartani segment by 2026, with construction progress at 78.9% and land acquisition at 99.5%. The segment is expected to enhance connectivity, logistics, and tourism. Meanwhile, the Klaten–Prambanan section has been operating toll-free since 2 July 2025, awaiting the government’s tariff approval. (Kontan)

 

MAIN Records Processed Product Exports to Four Countries Worth US$149,000

MAIN continues to expand the export market for its processed poultry products internationally. This month, the company recorded shipments to four countries simultaneously—Oman, the United States, Japan, and Singapore—with a total export value reaching US$149,000. (Kontan)

 

Starlink Halts New User Registrations in Indonesia

Starlink announced it is no longer accepting new user registrations in Indonesia, citing that its satellite internet service capacity has reached its limit. Activation of new Starlink kits purchased through retail or third parties has also been temporarily suspended. The company has not provided a timeline for when additional capacity will be available but stated it is working with local partners to restore service availability. (Kontan)