FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Medikaloka Hermina: Challenging 1H25 Patient Volume Disrupted Margin but LT Prospect Remains Intact (HEAL.IJ Rp 1,620; BUY TP Rp 1,850)

• Soft 1H25 was driven by tightening BPJS claim, fewer working days, and weaker private patient vol., disrupting scale-driven margin strategy.
• We lower our FY25F/26F EPS forecast by 25/29% to reflect challenging 1H25 results and cautious BPJS outlook despite improving Jul25 volume.
• We maintain Buy rating as we see LT prospect remaining intact; we roll forward our DCF to arrive at a new TP of Rp1,850.

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Macro Strategy: Shifting Curves, Diverging Signals

• Shift in US yield curve as weak jobs, soft consumption, and inflation risks raise stagflation fears and pressure Fed policy response.
• IMF upgrades global growth outlook; S&P affirms Indonesia’s BBB rating, citing fiscal discipline and domestic demand.
• Indonesia’s 2Q25 GDP likely marks a trough, with soft consumption offset by stronger fiscal spending and resilient net exports.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

Poultry (Overweight) – 5th Week of July 2025 Price Update

• Livebird (LB) prices remained stable at Rp18.0k/kg in the last week of Jul25, flat wow. On a monthly basis, the average LB price stood at Rp18.2k/kg (+2% mom; -3.8% yoy), in line with our expectation of stable prices supported by the HAP policy.
• DOC prices were steady at around Rp4.7k/chick.
• Corn prices rose sharply to Rp6.1k/kg, pushing the weekly average up by 6.5% wow to Rp6.0k/kg in the last week of Jul25. For the full month, the average corn price stood at Rp5.4k/kg (-2% mom; +21% yoy).
• SBM prices stayed soft at ~US$270/t, with the Jul25 average at US$268/t (-7% mom; -25% yoy).
• We view LB prices in Jul25 as supportive for broiler margin recovery. However, the recent surge in local corn prices could put pressure on feed costs, although soft SBM prices should continue to provide some cushion for feed margins. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update August 4, 2025

CORPORATE

ANTM Secures US$500Mn Loan for Expansion

ANTM has signed a US$500mn (Rp8.03tr) syndicated loan agreement on August 1, 2025, to support capex, acquisitions, working capital, and operational needs. The loan comprises two facilities—US$250mn term loan and US$250mn revolving credit—from a consortium including DBS, MUFG, SMBC, and UOB. The loan matures in 60 months, with interest rates of SOFR plus 1.025%–1.075%. Following the deal, ANTM’s total liabilities are projected to rise to Rp20.32tr. Disputes will be settled under SIAC arbitration. (Emiten News)

 

AVIA Expands Distribution Network

AVIA opened two new distribution centers in Tangerang and Malang in August 2025, targeting six new centers this year to boost service speed and coverage. With 145 total centers, the company aims to strengthen its leadership in Indonesia’s decorative paint market, where AVIA holds a 24% share, supported by strong manufacturing and vertical integration. (Kontan)

 

MEDC Cuts Over 1.5mn Tons of Emissions

MEDC has reduced over 1.5 million tons CO₂e of Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions from its 2019 baseline, surpassing its 2025 target of 1.08 million tons. The reduction aligns with MedcoEnergi’s long-term goal of Net Zero for Scope 1 and 2 by 2050 and Scope 3 by 2060. In 2024, the company implemented 43 initiatives, achieving a peak annual reduction of 181,727 tons CO₂e—led by flare avoidance at the Corridor Block. (Emiten News)

 

SSIA Shares Accumulated by Djarum Group, Ownership Tops 10%

Djarum Group, through its investment holding company PT Dwimuria Investama Andalan, has continued to increase its stake in SSIA to 10.04%. Since July 4, 2025, Djarum has been consistently accumulating SSIA shares, bringing its total ownership to 472.4 million shares. (Investor Daily)