FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Bank BTPS Syariah: 1Q26 Eanings: In Line; Improving Asset Quality Lowers CoC; Sustaining Positive Loan Growth (BTPS.IJ Rp1,005; BUY TP Rp1,400)

·         BTPS posted a net profit of Rp317bn in 1Q26 (+25% qoq, +3% yoy), forming 24% of our and consensus FY26F estimates, i.e., in line.

·         Asset quality showed improvement, with CoC declining to a 5-year low of 5.2% amid positive loan growth in the last 2 quarters.

·         Maintain Buy rating with an unchanged TP of Rp1,400 as we keep our forecast and valuation, implying an FV PBV of 1.0x.

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Mayora Indah: Conservative FY26 Top Line Guidance with Managed Margin Resilience (MYOR.IJ Rp1,840; BUY TP Rp2,700)

·         1Q26 rev is expected to be flat to slightly down yoy on timing effects of Eid, while margins are expected to remain resilient and potentially improve qoq.

·         Cost pressures from Middle East tensions to emerge from 2Q26, with modest freight impact and max ~2% margin dilution from packaging cost.

·         We adjusted FY26/27F net profit estimates by +1.0/-3.3% and reiterate Buy rating, with unchanged TP of Rp2,700. 

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Macro Strategy: The Next Constraint

·         IDR weakness reflects external, seasonal, and differential pressures. We shift our pessimistic scenario into the baseline.

·         BI is stepping up offshore, onshore, and SRBI measures, with rising SRBI yields signaling a tighter liquidity stance.

·         El Niño and higher fertilizer costs could raise food inflation risks, with pressure likely peaking in early of next year.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

Poultry (Overweight) – 4^th Week of April 2026 Price Update

·         Livebird prices continued to edge lower to Rp19.3k/kg, dragging the weekly average down to Rp19.1k/kg (–1.2% wow).

·         Local corn prices ticked up to Rp6.5k/kg, lifting the weekly average by 2.3% wow to Rp6.5k/kg.

·         SBM prices eased to US$324/t, with the Apr26 MTD average at US$324/t (+2% mom; +11% yoy).

·         LB prices have continued their downtrend, with prices now hovering below the estimated breakeven level of ~Rp19.6k/kg, indicating growing pressure on integrator margins. While the slight easing in SBM offers some relief, higher corn prices may offset this benefit. Should this trend persist, margins could face near-term pressure, although integrators are still able to capture margins from feed and DOC segments, which should help partially cushion the downside. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

UNTR (BUY, TP Rp32,000) – 1Q26 Operational: Soft yoy, Though Meeting our Conservative Forecast

Komatsu sales:

·         -20% yoy, 25% of FY26F.

·         Weak sales to Mining segment (-41% yoy) reflected delay of purchases due to RKAB uncertainties. This is offset by stronger sales to Agro and Forestry.

Mining contracting:

·         Total volumes (Coal+ OB): -4% yoy, 25% of FY26F.

·         Soft volume also reflected RKAB uncertainty, although 1Q26 volume was still based on 2025 RKAB.

Coal Mining:

·         The only bright spot +20% yoy, 31% of FY26F.

Gold Mining:

·         Near zero volume due to absence of contribution from Martabe

Potential implication to earnings (due out on 29th):

·         Soft sales to mining (big machine) implies potential shortfall on revenue and Pama’s lower volume yoy may weigh on margin given sub-optimum utilization. Additionally, earnings in 2Q26 onwards may also reflect risk from RKAB uncertainty to Pama’s volume, as our check indicates that coal miners will maintain 1Q26 run-rate in 2Q26, but risk if RKAB upward revision is not obtained. (Erindra Krisnawan, CFA & Kafi Ananta – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

Indonesia: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Indonesia Rose 8.5% yoy in 1Q26

Foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia (excluding financial services and oil & gas) rose 8.5% yoy to Rp250tr in 1Q26, extending growth from the previous quarter despite ongoing global uncertainty linked to Middle East tensions. Inflows were led by base metals (US$3.7bn), followed by services and mining. Singapore, Hong Kong, and China remained the main investors. The data reinforce a broader trend of FDI shifting toward downstream mining and refining, supported by Indonesia’s mineral export restrictions in recent years. (BKPM)