FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Macro Strategy: Finding the Right Balance

  • With oil still above USD100, it is important to balance stability and credibility in order to protect confidence and purchasing power.
  • Higher energy prices could lift inflation and rates, with subsidized fuel hikes having larger and longer lasting effects, affecting rates.
  • Consumption is improving gradually, but rising inflation could still weaken household spending and make the recovery more fragile.

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RESEARCH COMMENTARY

Poultry (OW) – 1st Week of April 2026 Price Update

  • Livebird prices extended their decline to Rp19.5k/kg, bringing the weekly average down 14% wow to Rp20.6k/kg as post-Lebaran softness continues to weigh on prices.
  • Local corn prices remained stable at Rp6.3k/kg, with the weekly average holding steady at the same level since early Mar26.
  • SBM prices held steady at US$315/t, bringing the Apr26 MTD average to US$317/t (flat mom; +9% yoy).
  • The sharper correction in LB prices suggests post-festive demand normalization is still ongoing, following the earlier resilience seen after Lebaran. While this may pressure near-term margins, stable corn prices and steady SBM should help keep feed cost pressures contained, partially cushioning the downside. Overall, we expect integrator profitability to remain manageable despite the near-term pressure on LB prices, supported by relatively stable input costs. (Victor Stefano & Wilastita Sofi – BRIDS)

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MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Indonesia: The Fiscal Deficit Widened to Rp240.1tr (0.93% of GDP) as of Mar26

The fiscal deficit widened to Rp240.1tr (0.93% of GDP) as of March 2026, up from Rp99.8tr (0.41% of GDP) a year earlier, as spending outpaced revenue growth. State revenue reached Rp574.9tr (+14.3% yoy), supported by tax collection of Rp462.7tr, with VAT and luxury tax surging 57.7% and income tax also rising. Meanwhile, government spending jumped 31.4% yoy to Rp815tr, reflecting a front-loaded strategy to support economic activity. The deficit remains within the 2026 target of 2.68% of GDP. (MoF)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Apr 6, 2026

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CORPORATE

BREN Shareholder Sells Rp1.57tr Shares to Boost Free Float

BREN saw its controlling shareholder affiliate, Green Era Energy, sell 350 million shares at Rp4,510 each (worth ~Rp1.57tr) to improve liquidity and increase free float. Despite the large transaction, ownership only edged down from 22.92% to 22.65%, adding just 0.27% to free float. (Emiten News)

 

Danantara Acquires 4 State-Owned Asset Managers Worth Rp2.7tr

Danantara, through PT Danantara Asset Management, has acquired majority stakes in four state-owned investment managers with a total transaction value of around Rp2.7tr. The deals include near-100% ownership of PT Mandiri Manajemen Investasi (~Rp1tr), 65% of PT BRI Manajemen Investasi (Rp975bn), nearly 100% of PT PNM Investment Management (Rp345bn), and 99.9% of PT BNI Asset Management (~Rp359.6bn). (Emiten News)

 

MEDC Secures 50% Stake in Cendramas PSC

MEDC announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, Medco Asia Pacific Limited, has signed the Cendramas Production Sharing Contract (PSC) with Petroliam Nasional Berhad, effective 23 September 2026. Under the agreement, Medco will hold a 50% participating interest and act as operator, while DIALOG Resources and EnQuest each hold 25%. The PSC is located near the South Natuna Sea Block B, offering potential operational synergies given similar geological characteristics. (Emiten News)

 

WINS Plans Up to US$3.53mn Buyback, Prepares MESOP Share Transfer

WINS plans a new share buyback of up to US$3.53mn, funded by internal cash flow, with execution expected from May 2026 to May 2027 pending shareholder approval. The company aims to repurchase up to 100 million shares (2.24% of capital) to support share price stability and enhance financial ratios. In parallel, WINS will transfer 15 million treasury shares via its MESOP VI 2026 program as part of employee and management incentives. (Emiten News)