FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

RESEACH COMMENTARY

BBTN (Buy, Rp1,300) – Nov25 Bank-Only Results

Nov25 Insights:

• Strong earnings driven by lower provisions and NII growth: BBTN posted solid Nov25 net profit of Rp408bn, up 105% mom and 101% yoy, mainly on sharply lower provisions (-39% mom, -34% yoy) alongside higher NII (+11% mom, +73% yoy).
• NIM expansion supported by CoF improvement: NIM jumped 37bps mom to 4.2% as CoF continued to decline to 3.4% (-38bps mom, -75bps yoy), more than offsetting a mild 8bps mom drop in EA yield. The decline in CoF was driven by the maturity of high-cost deposits and ongoing repricing efforts by the bank.
• CIR contained mom: CIR was broadly stable mom at 56.4%, with NII growth (+11% mom) largely compensating for higher opex (+10% mom), mainly from a 15% mom increase in other expenses, which we believe is related to the sharia spin-off.
• Substantial CoC decline: CoC declined significantly to 0.9% (-63bps mom, -62bps yoy).
• Stable LDR: Flat mom loan and TPF growth kept LDR stable at 91.2% in Nov25.

 

11M25 Insights:

• Positive earnings growth: Net profit reached Rp2.9tr (+21% yoy), representing 94% of our and 89% of consensus FY25F forecasts, and ahead of last year’s 11M run-rate (11M24: 80%).
• NIM uplift from front-loaded yield: NIM expanded 105bps yoy to 4.0%, supported by an 81bps yoy increase in EA yield to 8.1% due to accounting adjustments, while CoF remained supportive at 4.1% (-23bps yoy).
• Credit costs more than doubled: CoC rose to 1.6% (+86bps yoy) but remains in line with mgmt’s guidance of >1.5%.
• Lower CIR on higher NII: Strong NII growth (+46% yoy) reduced CIR to 54.0% (11M24: 63.9%) despite 13% yoy opex growth.
• Liquidity remains steady: Deposit growth of 16% yoy outpaced 9% loan growth, bringing LDR down to 91.2% in 11M25 from 97.1% in 11M24.

 

Summary:

• BBTN delivered strong Nov25 earnings, underpinned by continued CoF improvement that lifted NIM and lower monthly provisioning, while cumulative CoC remained within mgmt’s guidance. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

BBYB (Buy, Rp400) – Nov25 Bank-Only Results

Nov25 Insights:

• Earnings pressured by elevated CoC: BBYB reported a 60% mom decline in net profit to Rp21.3bn in Nov25, though still higher than Rp4.3bn in Nov24. The decline was driven by a sharp rise in CoC to 21.4% from 15.0% in Oct25, albeit below Nov24’s 25.8%.
• CoC rose despite easing write-offs: CoC increased to 21.4% despite a lower write-off to loan ratio of 16.5%, down from 17.0% in Oct25 and 21.7% in Nov24, warranting close attention.
• NIM weakened on yield compression: NIM fell to 13.6% (-162bps mom, -485bps yoy) as EA yield declined to 18.7% (-181bps mom, -486bps yoy), partially cushioned by lower CoF at 5.8% (-12bps mom, -4bps yoy).
• Loan contraction continued: Loans declined 5% mom to Rp7.1tr (-17% yoy) while deposits rose 3% mom, pushing LDR down to 50.3%.

 

11M25 Insights:

• Strong earnings recovery: Net profit reached Rp538bn in 11M25, a sharp turnaround from Rp11bn in 11M24, representing 87% of our and consensus estimate.
• Lower CoC underpinned profitability: Earnings improvement was driven primarily by CoC declining to 15.9% from 24.2% in 11M24. PPOP remained weak at Rp1.7tr (-19% yoy), reflecting declines in NII (-17% yoy) and other operating income (-26% yoy), partly offset by lower opex (-17% yoy).
• NIM compressed amid balance sheet shrinkage: NIM declined to 15.2% (-270bps yoy) as EA yield fell 315bps yoy to 20.3% and LDR dropped to 50.3% from 63.7%.
• Excess liquidity persisted: Loans contracted 17% yoy while deposits grew 5% yoy, keeping LDR below 60%.

 

Summary:

• BBYB’s Nov25 performance weakened due to a spike in CoC to a year-high level. The rise in CoC despite lower write-offs warrants close monitoring, as it may signal emerging risks within the commercial loan book. Nevertheless, 11M25 results remain solid, supported by lower cumulative CoC. (Victor Stefano & Naura Reyhan Muchlis – BRIDS)

MARKET NEWS

MACROECONOMY

Bank Indonesia Kept Its Benchmark Rate Unchanged At 4.75% In Dec25 Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 4.75% in Dec25 for the third straight meeting to support rupiah stability amid moderating growth. The Deposit and Lending Facility rates were maintained at 3.75% and 5.50%. BI noted easing inflation and steady GDP growth while acknowledging tight global financial conditions and limited room for further easing. Weak monetary transmission continues to weigh on credit growth, prompting adjustments to the KLM incentive scheme and the introduction of remuneration on excess reserves to encourage bank lending. (Bank Indonesia)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update Dec 17, 2025

CORPORATE

ADRO Announces Interim Dividend ADRO has announced the distribution of an interim cash dividend amounting to US$250mn, implying a dividend of ~Rp134 per share (yield: 7.4%). The cum-dividend date in the regular and negotiated markets is set for 29 December 2025, with dividend payment scheduled for 15 January 2026. (IDX)   BBRI to Pay Rp20.6tr Interim Dividend for FY25 BBRI will distribute an interim dividend of Rp137 per share (yield: 3.7%), totaling Rp20.63tr, payable on 15 January 2026. The dividend is based on financial results as of 30 September 2025, when BRI posted consolidated net profit of Rp41.2tr, supported by solid UMKM loan growth and sound risk management. (Emiten News)   BTPN Pays Rp24bn in Bond Coupons BTPN paid Rp23.99bn in interest for its Sustainable Bonds V Phase II 2024, Series A and B, on 17 December 2025. Series A (Rp429.91bn, 6.7% p.a., 3-year) received Rp7.20bn, while Series B (Rp966.50bn, 6.95% p.a., 5-year) received Rp16.79bn. PT Bank Mega Tbk acts as trustee. These bonds are part of BTPN’s Rp3tr sustainable bond program. (IDX)   MBMA Provides Loan to Subsidiary SCM MBMBA has extended a loan facility of up to US$51mn to its controlled subsidiary, PT Sulawesi Cahaya Mineral (SCM), effective 12 December 2025. The funding will support SCM’s capital expenditure, operations, and working capital. (Kontan)   PGEO Advances Geothermal Capacity in North Sulawesi PGEO submitted technical documents for Lahendong Units 7 & 8 (2 x 20 MW) and a 10 MW Binary Unit, potentially raising its electricity share in North Sulawesi to 35–40% and supporting Indonesia’s renewable energy targets. PGE manages 727 MW across six sites and aims for 1 GW by 2026 and 1.8 GW by 2033, while contributing to state and regional revenues. (IDX)   Sinarmas Explores Minority Stake Sale in MyRepublic Indonesia Sinarmas Group is exploring the sale of a minority stake in MyRepublic Indonesia, as part of a broader plan to raise about US$300mn in primary capital to fund network expansion. The proposed transaction would involve a partial dilution by Sinarmas alongside a primary capital injection, with proceeds earmarked to support rollout of fibre and FWA infrastructure. (DealStreetAsia)   TLKM Partners with CCSI to Develop Gresik–Makassar–Takisung Subsea Cable Network TLKM has entered into a strategic partnership with PT Communication Cable Systems Indonesia (CCSI) to explore the development of the SUB-2 subsea cable system (SKKL) along the Gresik–Makassar–Takisung route. The initiative aims to enhance investment efficiency, optimize the utilization of Telkom’s existing subsea cable routes, and strengthen Indonesia’s national digital connectivity infrastructure. (Kontan)

 

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