FROM EQUITY RESEARCH DESK

IDEA OF THE DAY

Semen Indonesia: Distribution Recovery May Still Take Time; Downgrade Rating to Sell on Limited Catalysts (SMGR.IJ Rp 2,940; SELL TP Rp 2,500)

·         Despite in-line 7M25 sales volume, we are turning more cautious on overall 2H25 outlook due to persisting weak consumer demand.

·         We downgraded our FY25F EPS by 53% on slightly lower volume outlook and limited cost-control amid benign revenue/ton reflected in 1H25.

·         Recent share price rally looks unwarranted given no re-rating catalysts ahead. We trimmed our TP to Rp2,500 and cut rating to Sell.

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MARKET NEWS

  
       
         
             
                   
                       
                         
                         

MACROECONOMY

Bank Indonesia Cut the Policy Rate By 25bps to 4.75%

Bank Indonesia cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 4.75%—the sixth cut totaling 150 bps since Sep24, its lowest since 2022. The move comes amid global slowdown, softer USD, low inflation (2.31% yoy in Aug), and sluggish credit growth (7.56% yoy). BI also lowered Deposit Facility 50 bps and Lending Facility 25 bps, while injecting liquidity via SRBI reduction, Rp217tr SBN purchases, and Rp384tr bank liquidity incentives. Faster pass-through to banking rates is expected to support credit recovery alongside fiscal expansion. (Bank Indonesia)

 

SECTOR

Commodity Price Daily Update September 17, 2025

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Government to Auction Geothermal Projects Worth US$1.99bn, Unlocking 350 MW Capacity

The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (ESDM) will auction three geothermal working areas (WKP) and seven preliminary survey & exploration assignments (PSPE) in 2025, with a total potential investment of US$1.99bn (Rp32.7tr and capacity of 350 MW. The minister highlighted Indonesia’s 27 GW geothermal reserves, of which only 10% has been utilized, calling it a key future energy source alongside solar, hydro, and wind. (Kontan)

 

CORPORATE

ISAT Partners with Tencent to Accelerate AI Business

ISAT has partnered with Tencent Holdings to scale up its artificial intelligence business in Indonesia. Tencent will support the development of Indosat’s super-app by integrating its technology through Tencent Cloud’s CDN services. (Bisnis)

 

MTEL Secures Share Buyback Approval of Rp1tr

MTEL announced two key decisions from its EGMS: the approval of a share buyback program of up to Rp1tr and changes to its board of commissioners. The buyback authorization will remain valid for up to 12 months from the date of approval. (Emiten News)

 

PTPP Nears Completion of Celebes Railway Divestment

PTPP is close to divesting PT Celebes Railway Indonesia, having received three final planning offers and aiming to select a preferred bidder in October 2025. The deal is targeted for completion this year. PTPP is also advancing the divestment of PT PP Infrastruktur’s water supply unit, aligning with its strategy to focus on core business, cut debt, and streamline its portfolio. (Bisnis)